Asian share markets got off to a wary start on Monday ahead of a week brimming with economic news that should underline the relative outperformance of the United States and support the dollar's ongoing bull run.
The star of the U.S. line up is the December payrolls report on Friday, where analysts expect a rise of 150,000 with unemployment holding at 4.2%.
These will be previewed by data on ADP hiring, job openings and weekly jobless claims, along with surveys on manufacturing, services and consumer sentiment.
Anything upbeat would support the case for fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and markets have already scaled back expectations to just 40 basis points for 2025.
Minutes of the Fed's last meeting due Wednesday will offer colour on their dot plot predictions, while there will be plenty of live comment with at least seven top policy makers speaking including influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Inflation figures from the EU and Germany this week will refine the outlook for more rate cuts from the European Central Bank, while China's consumer prices on Thursday is expected to support the case for further stimulus there.
With so much event risk ahead, investors were understandably cautious and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) returned from holiday still in a laid-back mood and nudged up 0.1%. South Korean stocks added 0.3%, though the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol seems no clearer.
THE FORTUNATE FEW
Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were a fraction firmer in early trade.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted the S&P 500 boasted a total return of 25% in 2024, the second year of gains above 20% and the last time that happened was 1998/99.
The rally was narrow, with almost half the rise coming from just five stocks, yet Goldman expects another 11% increase this year driven by a similar rise in earnings. Reports for the latest earnings season start to flow on Jan. 15.
The U.S. bond market has not been so fortunate and 10-year yields inched higher to 4.631%, very close to last week's eight-month top of 4.641%.
Investor appetite will be sorely tested this week by the sale of $119 billion in new three-, 10- and 3-year Treasuries.
The steady climb in yields kept the dollar index up at 108.950 , having risen almost 0.9% last week to a top of 109.540.
The euro was hanging on at $1.0298 , uncomfortably close to last week's 26-month trough of $1.0225. It now faces resistance around $1,0340, as trend-following funds continue to hunger for the psychological $1.000 level.
The dollar had broadened its advance last week to sweep over sterling as well, driving it to an eight-month low of $1.2349. The pound was last looking none too steady at $1.2420 .
The risk of Japanese intervention kept the dollar restrained at 157.63 yen , just short of last month's high of 158.09.
The strength of the dollar was a hurdle for gold, keeping the metal at $2,641 an ounce .
Oil has found support from colder weather in Europe and the United States, with a winter storm bringing snow, ice and freezing temperatures to a broad swath of the U.S. on Sunday.
Brent rose 19 cents to $76.70 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 27 cents to $74.23 per barrel.
