The S&P 500 suffered its first monthly decline since March last month, but the broader picture still offers plenty of reasons for optimism.
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Despite the June setback, the benchmark U.S. stock index surged more than 14% in the second quarter — its best quarterly performance since the pandemic-era rebound of mid-2020, when markets were roaring back from historic lows. The index also gained about 9.5% in the first half of 2026, its strongest first-half showing since 2024's 14.5% surge.
The chart is sending encouraging signals too. A key tool that traders watch is the 50-day moving average — essentially a rolling snapshot of where the index has traded over the past 50 days, used to gauge momentum. After briefly dipping below this level for the first time since early April, the index quickly climbed back above it and has stayed there since. That kind of swift recovery is generally read as a bullish sign — a signal that buyers are still in control.
The index currently sits around 7,483, roughly 1.7% below its early June 7,609.78 record close and down 1.8% from its 7,620.90 record intraday peak. If buyers push it higher, traders will be watching a cluster of resistance levels — areas where selling pressure tends to emerge. The first hurdle is near 7,530, followed by 7,578. In the event of new highs, the psychologically important 8,000 level comes into view.
Of course, the picture could darken. If the index slips back below its rising 50-day moving average — now sitting near 7,385 — it could put the brakes on the rally. In that scenario, support near 7,294 could give the market a positive reaction, but a deeper slide toward 7,238 or even the 7,000 zone cannot be ruled out.
What the chart shows:
(Daily markets commentary from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending - and what they might mean. Mapping the Market will next appear on July 8.)
