Even before the last vote on U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill was counted, Republicans and Democrats in Congress began gaming out how to use it to gain an edge in the 2026 midterm elections.
Midterm elections traditionally punish the party of the president in office, giving Democrats hope of recapturing control of at least one chamber of Congress where Republicans now hold full control. They view the Trump bill's cuts to Medicaid and food assistance as ready ammunition for their future campaign.
"There are House Republicans now, this morning, who are about to sign their political obituary with this vote," Representative Brendan Boyle told Reuters hours before the legislation passed the House of Representatives 218-214.
"They are literally walking the plank for Donald Trump," the Pennsylvania Democrat said.
Republicans contend that the legislation's permanent business tax breaks will goose the economy ahead of the November 2026 election, leading to job growth, higher wages and lower prices for groceries and energy.
"The American people are going to see great benefits from this bill, and they're going to know which party was fighting for them," said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, the chamber’s No. 2 Republican.
"The Democrat party still doesn't know why they lost in November. They're going to be reminded of that next year when they lose again," the Louisiana Republican predicted.
But polling data, independent political analysts and the impending retirement of two of the few Republicans who have been willing to challenge Trump tell a more complicated story about what American voters might have in mind more than a year into the future.
For one thing, Republicans appear to have their work cut out for them when it comes to selling voters on the legislation, which they say makes good on the campaign promises that brought them and Trump victory in 2024.
Forty-nine percent of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% favor it, according to recent polling by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Pew said majorities expressed concern that the legislation would raise the budget deficit and hurt lower income people while benefiting the wealthy.
Nonpartisan forecasters say the legislation will add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion in debt, a prediction that many Republicans contend overlooks future economic growth from business tax cuts.
MEDICARE CONCERNS
Internal Republican polling has also shown that even in districts held by the party, voters strongly oppose cuts to the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans and federally subsidized private health insurance, which the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicts could leave nearly 12 million Americans without health insurance.
"They're certain to remember losing their healthcare or food assistance, if that happens, and most will blame the governing party, the Republicans," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
But Republicans shrugged off the dangers of voter blowback and predict that any ill-effects from the legislation, which includes work requirements for able-bodied Medicaid recipients, will not be felt until after the 2026 election.
"None of this stuff with Medicaid even impacts anybody for two years," said Republican Representative Mike Flood, who has weathered stormy town hall meetings in his Nebraska district this year.
Paul Sracic, an adjunct fellow at the conservative-leaning Hudson Institute, also argued that Medicaid cuts would prove too complicated and come too late to have a big impact on voters.
"Politics is about simplifying things. The Medicaid cuts are somewhat complicated, whereas extending the current tax regime is easy for people," he said.
Scalise and other Republicans predicted voters would see early benefits from the legislation's tax breaks for tipped income, overtime pay and car loan interest payments, which begin this year.
Control of the House is likely to depend on the election outcome in about three dozen of the 435 House districts that are viewed as competitive by the three main U.S. nonpartisan political ratings services. Republicans currently hold a narrow 220-212 House majority.
About half of those seats are held by Republicans, among which the most vulnerable is Representative Don Bacon's Nebraska swing district. A five-term Republican centrist, Bacon announced his retirement last month after clashing with Trump over funding priorities and the tenure of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. His district, which was carried by Democrat Kamala Harris last year and by former President Joe Biden in 2020, is seen by some analysts as tipping in Democrats' favor.
Republicans face much better odds protecting their 53-47 seat Senate majority. Democrats have to defend three open seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire next year, while fending off a determined Republican effort to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
But Democrats have a new opportunity in North Carolina, where Senator Thom Tillis announced that he would retire as he prepared to oppose the Trump legislation in the Senate due to cuts in Medicaid funding. Trump has floated the name of his daughter-in-law and former Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump as a possible replacement.
Another vulnerable Republican is Senator Susan Collins, who joined Tillis and fellow Republican Senator Rand Paul in voting against the Trump legislation alongside Democrats.
Some lawmakers and analysts contended that Trump's legislation would make no difference to voters in 2026.
"Republican voters will parrot the talking points of their leaders and Democrats will do the same," Sabato said.
