Voters in Florida and Alaska go to the polls on Tuesday in primary contests that could provide clues about which party will emerge with control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November's midterm elections.
Alaska's unusual Senate primary, in particular, could serve as a preview of the most competitive Senate races, as incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola will be on the same nonpartisan ballot. Democrats need to pick up at least four seats from Republicans to win control of the 100-seat chamber, and analysts view Alaska as one of their strongest opportunities.
Florida's primary election, by contrast, is likely to bolster Republicans' chances of maintaining control of the House, as it will be the first election since the state approved a new district map that is expected to net them up to four seats.
FLORIDA’S NEW MAP
Florida's new map, pushed through by the Republican-controlled legislature this spring, could leave the state with a House delegation of 24 Republicans and only four Democrats, in a state that Republican President Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. States usually redraw their congressional maps only at the beginning of every decade, to reflect census results. But several have redistricted over the past year at Trump's urging to shore up the Republican majority, prompting some Democratic-led states to redraw their own maps in response.
The reshuffle has forced some incumbent Democrats to scramble for new footing.
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, first elected to Congress in 2004, is running for a new seat in Florida's 20th congressional district, centered in Broward County, after her existing seat was redrawn to favor Republicans.
She has faced some criticism for running in the historically Black district from activists who are already worried about losing Black representation in Congress following a Supreme Court decision that weakened a landmark civil rights law.
She faces several Black candidates, including rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell, who found fame with the 1989 hit "Me So Horny," and former Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who faces criminal charges of stealing $5 million in disaster relief funds. Cherfilus-McCormick, who has denied wrongdoing, resigned from Congress in April ahead of a possible expulsion.
Another incumbent Democrat, Representative Jared Moskowitz, has also been forced to run in a new seat. Oliver Larkin, a political activist endorsed by the left-wing Democratic Socialists of America, is also running for the party's nomination for the 25th congressional district, which runs along the Atlantic Coast from Miami Beach to Delray Beach. The Republican primary contest features five candidates, including former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer.
Elsewhere in the state, seven Republicans, including entrepreneur Michael Carbonara and university executive Belinda Keiser, are running for their party's nomination in the 22nd district, which has been redrawn to favor their party. Two candidates, Pia Dandiya and Kaysia Earley, are running for the Democratic nomination.
In the Tampa Bay area, eight Republican candidates are running for the right to take on Democratic Representative Kathy Castor, whose 14th district has likewise been redrawn with a Republican tilt.
Florida voters will also select candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.
Republican Representative Byron Donalds is widely considered the frontrunner for his party's nomination for governor, while Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly is likely to win his party's nomination.
Republican Ashley Moody, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill the seat vacated by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is expected to win her party's nomination to fill out his term, which runs until January 2029.
Former U.S. Army officer Alex Vindman, who testified in Trump's first impeachment, is favored to win the Democratic nomination.
Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats will have an uphill climb to win either race in November.
SHOWDOWN IN THE NORTH
In the Alaska Senate race, some opinion polls show Democratic candidate Peltola, a moderate who formerly held the state's sole House seat, leading Sullivan — an unusual result for a state that typically backs Republican candidates.
In the House of Representatives, incumbent Republican Representative Nick Begich III is facing a challenge from former school administrator Bill Hill, who is listed as an independent but has donated to Democratic candidates in the past. Thirteen other candidates are also on the ballot.
