Major container shipping companies are suspending at least six scheduled weekly routes between China and the United States as President Donald Trump's punishing tariffs on the world's top exporting country collapse trade, maritime consultants said.
The ships on those routes have the combined capacity to deliver 25,682 40-foot containers stuffed with toys, tennis shoes, car parts and things U.S. manufacturers use to produce goods each week - or more than 1.3 million 40-foot containers a year, based on capacity data provided in customer advisories.
The service cuts, coupled with cancellations of individual voyages, come as hulking container ship operators move to mitigate fallout from Trump's erratic trade policies.
Policy makers, economists, and business owners have become increasingly hungry for information on ocean trade, responsible for 80% of the world's commerce, because it is a gauge of global economic health.
"This is not the precursor, it is the proof of a drop in economic activity," Simon Sundboell, CEO of Danish maritime data provider eeSea, said of the container vessel capacity reductions now underway.
The route suspensions include scheduled weekly services operated by MSC, Zim and the Ocean Alliance that includes Cosco (601919.SS), Evergreen (2603.TW), CMA-CGM and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) (0316.HK), Sundboell said.
Four of the service cuts affect West Coast ports, one impacts the East Coast and one hits the Gulf Coast, he said.
The container shipping companies culling those services either declined to comment or did not immediately respond.
Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) and Hapag-Lloyd's (HLAG.DE) Gemini Alliance have not suspended services - even though both partners experienced significant tariff-related China to U.S. booking cuts in April and have swapped out some ships for smaller vessels.
Representatives from the U.S. and China are meeting this weekend in Switzerland after more than two months of stalemate over trade.
BLANKETY BLANK
Global shipping companies use service suspensions and cancellations of individual voyages, known as blank sailings, to shelter profits by ensuring they do not have more ships on the water than are needed by customers. That reduces unnecessary overhead costs and keeps supply and demand in balance, supporting competing off-contract spot rates.
Blank sailings increased significantly after the COVID pandemic upended global trade in 2020 - and are part of why global container ship operators have been enjoying record profits.
Major U.S. retailers like Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Walmart (WMT.N), which account for nearly half of global container trade, responded to Trump's 145% tariffs on China last month by pausing or cancelling factory orders after those import duties more than doubled the cost of goods made in China.
Canceled, or blanked, individual voyages on the vital Transpacific route from Asia to North America surged from 9% in week ended March 30 to 24% in week ended May 4, maritime consultancy Drewry said in a podcast earlier this week.
Drewry's data shows blank sailings reduced capacity on the Asia to West Coast North America routes by 20% in April and 12% so far in May.
The cuts hit slightly harder on the North American East Coast, reducing 22% in April and 18% thus far in May, the consultancy said.
MSC, the world's largest container ship operator, in April canceled 30% of its scheduled Transpacific voyages - more than any other container carrier, said Daniela Ghimp, project manager for ocean freight rate benchmarking at Drewry.
The Premier Alliance, composed of Ocean Network Express (ONE), Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) and Yang Ming Marine Transportation, leads so far in May with a 20% blank sailing rate, Ghimp said.
ONE declined comment, while HMM and Yang Ming did not immediately respond.
The full effect of Trump's tariffs will likely be delayed until July, when overall U.S. container import volume could be down 25% or more from the year earlier, said John McCown, senior fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy.
"Something's gotta give, and I believe either considerably more capacity will have to be culled, or spot rates will start to crash," said Alan Murphy, CEO of supply chain adviser Sea-Intelligence.
