Maritime consultancy Drewry said on Thursday it expects global container port volume to fall 1% as a direct result of U.S. trade policies.
That would be the third drop in global container shipping demand since London-based Drewry began collecting that data in 1979. Container volume fell 8.4% during the global financial crisis in 2009 and 0.9% in 2020 when the COVID pandemic was declared.
The Trump administration's current policy includes blanket tariffs of 10% on goods from most countries and 145% import duties products from China. China and other countries have hit back with tariffs on U.S. goods.
"Assuming that 2/3 of current tariffs remain in place, U.S. imports from China could fall by 40%," the consultancy said in a slide presentation.
China dominates U.S. imports of consumer goods, industrial products and furniture.
Relocation of Chinese production to countries facing much lower tariffs could offset some of the decline in shipping demand. To that end, U.S. imports from other countries could increase as much as 15%, Drewry said.
When the U.S. escalated tariffs on China earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway-owned RC Willey Home Furnishings hit pause on all orders from factories there, including some that were ready to be loaded on an outbound ship, said Jeff Child, president of the retailer that has stores in Utah, Nevada, Idaho and California.
At the same time, the company restarted orders from Vietnam. It stopped those orders when the Trump administration targeted that nation with tariffs of 46%. RC Willey resumed orders when Vietnam tariffs were temporarily lowered to 10% for 90 days.
While the tariff turmoil is a headache for retailers, it also is souring shopper sentiment, Child said.
"The biggest killer of consumer confidence is uncertainty and that's where we're at right now."
Economists warn that President Donald Trump's trade policies raise the risk for a recession in the United States, the world's largest economy. A U.S. downturn could quickly spread to other nations around the world.
Worldwide economic output will slow in the months ahead as Trump's steep tariffs on virtually all trading partners begin to bite, the International Monetary Fund said earlier this week.
German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) said on Wednesday that customers have canceled 30% of shipments to the United States from China, spooked by the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies.
The National Retail Federation, whose members include Walmart (WMT.N) and Target , forecast earlier this month that U.S. containerized import cargo volume would drop at least 20% year over year in the second half of 2025 as companies that source from China hit pause on orders.
Many containers from China land at the busiest U.S. port in Los Angeles. Its executive director warned that its import volumes could start falling as early as May.
