When Marco Rubio arrives in Latin America this weekend on his first foreign trip as Donald Trump's secretary of state, he'll find a region reeling from the new administration's shock-and-awe approach to diplomacy.
In the first days of Trump's second term, the new president has doubled down on his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal, angered Brazilians by returning migrants in shackles and briefly imposed crushing sanctions and tariffs on Colombia in a tussle over deportee flights.
Rubio's first stop will be Panama City as the Trump administration shifts back Washington's focus to Latin America, aiming to counter the already extensive Chinese influence in the region and stem migration.
The first Latino secretary of state, Rubio has already indicated that the State Department will be instrumental in helping Trump achieve his policy to "curb mass migration" and the topic will be front and center as he continues on to El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic.
The Trump administration has stepped up deportations, sending migrants in military aircraft to Latin American countries, including Guatemala. The flights sparked a brief spat with Colombia on Sunday after President Gustavo Petro refused to allow two military planes to land, before later agreeing to send Colombian planes to bring back deportees.
Kevin Whitaker, a former U.S. ambassador to Colombia, said Trump's immediate imposition of tariffs as well as rarely used sanctions and visa restrictions against Colombia, a longstanding U.S. ally, in response signaled to countries in the region how seriously the Trump administration is taking migration.
"The message it sent is how willing the Trump administration is to use these tools," Whitaker, now at the Atlantic Council think tank, said in a call with reporters.
Trump has indicated he wants to reassert U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, saying Washington also needs to control Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark - an aspiration steadfastly rejected by Danish and Greenland officials - alongside his threats over the Panama Canal.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a fluent Spanish speaker, is a longtime hawk on Cuba and Venezuela policy.
During Trump's first term, he was a driving force behind a rollback of predecessor Barack Obama's historic rapprochement with Cuba and also played a major role in crafting a "maximum pressure" campaign against Venezuela, including sweeping sanctions on the OPEC nation's energy sector.
MIGRATION FOCUS
Immediately after taking office, Trump declared a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, banned asylum for people fleeing conflict in their home countries and issued an order that attempts to block the children of some immigrants from becoming U.S. citizens.
Rubio quickly took up the mantle.
"Our diplomatic relations with other countries, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, will prioritize securing America’s borders, stopping illegal and destabilizing migration, and negotiating the repatriation of illegal immigrants," Rubio said in a note setting out his priorities.
Rubio could use his trip to push so-called “third country” agreements, in which nations accept citizens of other countries deported by the United States, as well as smoothing the way for more deportation flights returning migrants to their own countries, experts said.
Cuba and Venezuela have frosty relations with the U.S. and have greatly limited the number of deportees they are willing to accept, so Trump’s administration will likely need to find other countries to accept them – potentially including some of the countries on Rubio’s itinerary.
"These are the places Trump probably thinks he can pressure into taking these deportees from other countries," said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
CHINA TENSION
Rubio’s talks with Panama will take place in the shadow of Trump’s threats. The president during his inauguration vowed that the United States would take back the Panama Canal but has given no further details on when or how he intended to reclaim the canal - which is the sovereign territory of a close partner.
Trump has lashed out at the fees U.S. shipping pays to use the canal but seems most animated by the involvement of a Chinese company in its operations. The State Department's spokesperson said the trip would partly be about countering China in the region.
At his Senate confirmation hearing earlier this month, Rubio said it could be argued that the terms of the U.S. agreement with Panama that the canal cannot be turned over to a foreign power had been breached because of the involvement of Chinese companies.
“In reality, a foreign power today possesses through their companies, which we know are not independent, the ability to turn the canal into a choke point and a moment of conflict. And that is a direct threat to the national interest in security of the United States,” Rubio said.
U.S. Senators on Tuesday joined in expressing alarm over China's role in the canal, including a Chinese company's work on a bridge across the canal, and said it poses risks to U.S. national security.
The Panamanian government has vehemently denied ceding operation of the strategic waterway to China and insists it administers the canal fairly to all shipping.
Isaac Kardon, senior fellow for China studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said he believed there was space for agreement -- something that would satisfy Trump as a win without being disruptive.
"I imagine Rubio is going to be much more nuanced and I think there's a little bit of a good cop, bad cop style of diplomacy underway," Kardon said.
Critics have accused Trump of modern-day imperialism in his threats over the canal and Greenland, suggesting such rhetoric could encourage Russia on its war in Ukraine and give justification to China if it decides to invade self-ruled Taiwan.
China has in recent years gained economic and diplomatic influence in Central America, where countries including Panama have in recent years stopped recognizing the democratically governed island of Taiwan, falling in line with Beijing’s view that Taiwan is China’s territory.
