The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high in January amid front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs, suggesting that trade could be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.
The trade gap surged 34.0% to an all-time high of $131.4 billion from a revised $98.1 billion in December, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Thursday. The percentage change was the largest since March 2015.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit soaring to $127.4 billion from the previously reported $98.4 billion in December. President Donald Trump this week slapped a new 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, triggering a trade war.
Imports soared 10.0%, the most since July 2020, to $401.2 billion. Goods imports increased a record 12.3% to an all-time high of $329.5 billion. They were driven by a $23.1 billion increase in imports of industrial supplies and materials, mostly reflecting finished metal shapes, which are probably gold.
Consumer goods imports rose $6.0 billion, boosted by pharmaceutical preparations, cell phones and other household goods. Imports of capital goods increased $4.6 billion amid rises in computers, computer accessories and telecommunications equipment.
Imports of services rose $0.4 billion to $71.7 billion, lifted by rises in charges for the use of intellectual property and other business services. But travel service imports decreased.
Exports rose 1.2% to $269.8 billion. Goods exports increased 1.6% to $172.8 billion, boosted by a $4.2 billion rise in capital goods that reflected civilian aircraft, semiconductors, computers and civilian aircraft engines. Consumer goods exports increased $1.7 billion, driven by pharmaceutical preparations and jewelry. But exports of other goods dropped $1.3 billion.
Food exports decreased $1.0 billion, pulled down by a $0.8 billion drop in soybeans. Exports of services increased $0.6 billion to $97.0 billion amid gains in financial, telecommunications, computer and information as well as other business and transport services. But exports of government goods and services decreased $0.3 billion.
The deterioration in the trade deficit and drop in consumer spending in January have raised the risk of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter. But some economists still expect moderate growth this quarter, arguing that gold, mostly from Europe, accounted for much of the surge in imports.
The increase in gold imports was seen related to fears of tariffs on the precious metal.
"Most gold imports into the U.S. are unrelated to U.S. production or consumption and instead fluctuate based on demand from gold market participants, so the BEA excludes them altogether from the national accounts," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently forecasting GDP declining at a 2.8% annualized rate this quarter. The economy grew at a 2.3% in the October-December quarter.
