U.S. central bankers on Wednesday signaled they are likely to deliver two quarter-point interest-rate cuts later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they forecast slower economic growth and higher inflation.
But there was substantial disagreement among policymakers about the appropriate path of policy, reflecting uncertainty over how the Trump administration's trade and other policies will play out in the real economy, and how the Federal Reserve should respond.
As was widely expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range. Nine of the 19 Fed policymakers expect it to be in the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of this year, the Fed's quarterly summary of economic projections showed. Four policymakers felt one rate cut would be appropriate this year, and four felt the Fed should not cut rates at all. Two felt three rate cuts would be the right call.
By the end of 2026, the policy rate will be another 50 basis points lower, at 3.4%, according to the median of policymaker projections, which analysts and investors use as a guide for what Fed policymakers think they might actually do.
Whether those projections come to pass, however, is a different story. Fed policymakers also indicated a great deal of uncertainty around their projections, with the vast majority indicating greater than usual uncertainty around each of their forecasts.
President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China with import duties on a broader range of countries and products expected to be announced April 2.
Fed policymakers have said tariffs are likely to boost prices in the short-term, but have also said it's not clear if that will translate to persistently higher inflation. They have also said they will adjust rates based on the overall impact of Trump's policies, which also include cuts to federal spending and taxes, as well as deregulation and immigration controls.
Investor worries that the end result will be an economic slowdown perhaps coupled with inflation have fueled stock market declines in recent weeks.
Policymakers expect inflation by the Fed's targeted metric to end this year at 2.7% before dropping to 2.2% next year, the projections show, a slightly more sticky path than that projected in December. At the same time, all but one of 19 policymakers indicated concern that inflation could be stronger than expected.
Overall policymakers also saw weaker economic growth and higher unemployment this year than they had anticipated three months ago. All but one indicated concern growth would be lower.
