U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and has threatened duties on goods from other nations, sparking concerns of trade retaliation from countries that import U.S. agricultural goods.
U.S. consumers could see prices rise for foodstuffs, from meat and dairy products to avocados and fresh fruits and vegetables as a result of tariffs, economists have said.
Retaliation from China, Canada and Mexico would hurt the $190 billion U.S. agricultural export sector. They are the top three markets for American farm products and imported a total of $94 billion in U.S. agricultural goods in 2023.
Retaliatory tariffs during Trump's first term resulted in around $27 billion in lost U.S. agricultural exports, including $25.7 billion in sales to China, according to Rabobank analysts.
Some Chinese soy buyers have rushed to secure U.S. supplies ahead of Trump's inauguration under a looming threat of tariffs.
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Soybeans, the top U.S. farm export by value, as well as corn, wheat and meat exports are vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.
SOYBEANS
Exports totaled $27.7 billion in 2023, down from a record of nearly $34.4 billion in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau trade data. Exports for 2024 were down 16% through November.
Exports to top market China totaled $15.1 billion in 2023, down from a record $17.9 billion in 2022. The value of shipments in 2024 was down 22% through November.
Trade tensions with Beijing in 2018 saw total U.S. soybean exports drop to the lowest in nine years, with shipments to China falling 74% from the prior year.
Value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, through November:
China: $11.0 billion
Mexico: $2.0 billion
Indonesia: $1.1 billion
CORN
U.S. corn exports to all destinations in 2023 fell to $13.1 billion, below record sales of $18.6 billion in 2021, Census data showed, due to competition from other global suppliers.
Total 2024 exports through November, by value, were up 6% from the prior year as higher shipments to major importers Mexico, Japan, Colombia and South Korea offset a 78% drop in exports to China.
Value of top three U.S. corn export markets in 2024, through November:
Mexico: $5.2 billion
Japan: $2.5 billion
Colombia: $1.4 billion
WHEAT
U.S. wheat exports to all global buyers in 2023 were down 27%, at $6.1 billion. Exports in 2024, by value, were down 2% through November from the prior year period, Census data showed, amid pressure from cheaper Russian supplies.
Value of top three U.S. wheat export markets in 2024, through November:
Mexico: $937.8 million
Philippines: $696.2 million
China: $557.0 million
BEEF
The United States exported nearly $10 billion in beef and beef products in 2023, Census data showed. Shipments in 2024, through November, were up 5% by value from the prior year because tight domestic supplies raised beef prices.
Value of top three U.S. beef export markets in 2024, through November:
South Korea: $2.0 billion
Japan: $1.7 billion
China: $1.4 billion
PORK
U.S. pork and pork product exports totaled nearly $8.2 billion in 2023, Census data showed. The value of 2024 shipments, through November, was up 6% from the prior year as consumers looked for cheaper alternatives to higher-priced beef and domestic hog supplies shrank.
Value of top three U.S. pork export markets in 2024, through November:
Mexico: $2.3 billion
Japan $1.3 billion
China $1.0 billion
U.S. AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS
The U.S. imported $195.9 billion worth of agricultural products from suppliers around the world in 2023. Imports jumped 9% in the first 11 months of 2024, compared with the same period a year earlier, Census data showed.
Top agricultural products imported into the U.S., from January through November 2024, by value:
* Baked goods, pasta, cereals: $13.6 billion
* Processed fruit and vegetables: $12.4 billion
* Fresh vegetables: $12.1 billion
* Fresh fruit and berries: $12.1 billion
* Vegetable oils: $11.6 billion
* Beef products: $10.6 billion
* Coffee: $6.0 billion
* Sugars and sweeteners: $5.1 billion
* Dairy products: $4.9 billion
* Chocolate and cocoa products: $4.4 billion
