China's decision to restrict exports of antimony from Sept. 15 is likely to drive prices of the metal used in ammunition and batteries to new records, as buyers seek more material to stockpile, analysts and traders said on Thursday.
Prices of the minor metal , also used in fire-retardants, photovoltaic solar cells and military equipment, are already trading at all-time highs above $22,000 a metric ton, having roughly doubled since the start of the year due to a global deficit of the metal.
"Given we are still at record prices, it's likely that prices will go even higher with this announcement," said Chetan Soni at consultancy CRU, adding that prices could reach $30,000 as buyers would be looking to secure material for future production or stockpiling.
China is the world's largest antimony producer, accounting for 48% of global supplies at 83,000 tons last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
This could widen the deficit in the antimony market, which consultancy Project Blue estimated at 10,000 tons in May.
"China has already been cutting down on metal exports as they are consuming it all domestically," said Jack Bedder, co-founder of Project Blue.
European refineries of antimony trioxide have increased supply from Tajikistan, Vietnam and Myanmar to diversify from the Chinese feed, while India increased antimony ingot supplies to the United States, he said.
Another upsurge in antimony prices will reinforce the western world's reliance on China for critical minerals, which also include rare earths, gallium and germanium, exports of which are also restricted since last year.
In those cases, exports quickly flatlined after export licence requirements were introduced, before rising again, a trend which could be seen with antimony exporters now needing to apply for a licence, CRU's Soni said.
Other major producers of antimony include Myanmar, which accounted for 4,600 tons last year, Turkey for 6,000 tons and Tajikstan for 21,000 tons, according to USGS.
"The prospects of a small but antimony-rich country, Tajikistan, look good now," said Alexey Kabanov, CEO at Swiss-based trading firm Voyager Group.
The tight market conditions are partly because of disruptions in supply from Russia due to sanctions imposed after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and Russia's lower domestic production. Russia produced 4,300 tons in 2023, data from USGS showed.
"There is no pipeline of supply to turn on," said Christopher Ecclestone, a principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company in London, adding that prices could easily climb above $30,000 this year.
