China is likely to launch military drills this week near Taiwan, using Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's upcoming national day speech as a pretext to pressure the island to accept its sovereignty claims, Taiwanese officials say.
China in May launched "punishment" drills around Taiwan shortly after Lai's inauguration, in what Beijing said was a response to "separatist acts", sending up heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks as state media denounced newly inaugurated Lai.
The May drills were dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A" and drew concerns from capitals including Washington.
Lai will deliver a key speech on Oct. 10 in a grand celebration in front of the presidential office in Taipei to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's official name.
"Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on October 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword - 2024B. That's a possibility," said a senior Taiwan security official, citing intelligence gathered by Taiwan and the government's assessments on China's likely moves.
"It's likely to be a pretext," the official said.
In an internal security memo, a copy of which was reviewed by Reuters, Taiwan authorities say they believe Beijing might blame the possible drills on Lai's "provocation" in his speech.
China has "continuously tried to test the red lines of various countries, maximising its grey-zone operations," the memo said, referring to military moves that stop short of actual combat to test and pressure other militaries.
Both Taiwan and China's defence ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Taiwan Affairs Office also did not immediately respond to requests for comment
A Taipei-based diplomatic source told Reuters that one thing that could hold back a military reaction by China to Lai's speech was the closeness of the U.S. presidential election and Beijing not wanting for Taiwan tensions to suddenly be put into the international spotlight so close to the vote.
"These days China does not really need a pretext to hold war games around Taiwan. They can do them anytime they like," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.
China detests Lai and his party as "separatists" who refuse to recognise Beijing's position that democratically-governed Taiwan is a part of China.
Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan's people can decide their future.
