U.S. retailers including Walmart (WMT.N) and several clothing brands are racing to secure China-made merchandise for the busy summer shopping season starting in late May after Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily slash tariffs.
The agreement on Monday to lower U.S. tariffs on shipments from Chinato 30% from 145% for the next three months prompted a restart in orders and shipments for sundresses, bathing suits, clogs and sunscreens from Chinese factories, according to logistics company Portless, which helps U.S. e-commerce brands import goods from China via air.
"Once the tariff cut was announced, our clients said 'we are in go-go-go mode,'" said Izzy Rosenzweig, CEO of Portless, which counts swimwear brand Hapari, and bug repellent maker NatPat among its clients. "They said 'let's restart production and let's restart shipping.'"
U.S. businesses largely rely on ocean shipping but that can take between 30 and 60 days for goods to reach the United States from China, depending on the destination and ship size, although orders for the summer can start in late winter or early spring to allow for the manufacturing of new designs, John Harmon, managing director of technology research at Coresight Research, said.
U.S. retailers and apparel companies typically begin shipping merchandise from China at least two to three months before the summer season starts on Memorial Day, which this year falls on May 26.
But after U.S. President Donald Trump hit Beijing with retaliatory and fentanyl tariffs totaling 145% on April 9, several U.S. companies paused their orders. Container bookings from China to the U.S. fell nearly 50% in the last week of April, according to data provided to brokerage TD Cowen by container tracking firm Vizion.
This trend went into reverse on Monday, but Harmon said restarting supply chains after the April pause could take some time.
"It has been super busy these two days," said Liu, a toy manufacturer from the export hub of Dongguan in Southern China, who declined to give her full name for privacy reasons.
"We are booking containers and some of our goods are already on the way to Shenzhen port. In recent months there were fewer cargo buses on the road but today ... there is a traffic jam on the way to the port," said Liu, who serves customers including Walmart, the biggest single importer of container goods into the United States.
CONTAINER-COSTS WORRIES
Despite the rush to deliver goods to the U.S., freight rates have not yet spiked. The spot rate to send a 40-foot (12 m) container from China to the U.S. West Coast rose 3% week-on-week to $2,395 on Monday, data from freight booking and payments platform Freightos shows, indicating that businesses were not swamping shippers with bookings.
This is half of the price in February, when many large players were rushing to stock up to defuse the expected tariff action by Trump.
But companies like Bogg Bag are starting to worry that container costs are soon going to go through the roof. Kim Vaccarella, CEO of the tote-bag maker, sold at retailers including Target (TGT.N), said on Wednesday that she has drastically sped up manufacturing for her China-made totes to get as many as possible en route to New Jersey by August. She is sticking to a few popular items instead of many new products at once so that they can move fast.
Retailers including Walmart, which reports earnings on Thursday, and rivals Costco (COST.O) and Target front-loaded orders at the start of the year, CFRA research analyst Arun Sundaram wrote in a note on May 13.
Walmart's inventories rose about 3% in the quarter ended January 31, its first rise in nearly two years, Sundaram said.
At warehouse club chain Costco, inventories were up nearly 10%, while those of surf and skateboard apparel retailer Zumiez (ZUMZ.O) rose about 14% in the three months to February. Target's inventories rose 7% during the same period.
While Monday's tariff reprieve is a potential boon for U.S. brands eager to stock up on summer merchandise, the current rush may create supply-chain bottlenecks, though likely less severe than during the pandemic years of 2021-2022, said Sundaram, who expects a rise in freight costs.
Some manufacturers of Halloween decorations told Reuters on Wednesday that they would have to scramble to produce and ship hanging skeletons and costume props to the United States within the 90-day window.
Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said businesses may not be able to fully prepare for both summer and back-to-school in July, another big retail selling season.
"Right now we're looking at the last orders that would go in for back-to-school, and maybe some lingering orders for summer fashion. So that's really tight," Seroka said.
Stephen Lamar, who heads the American Apparel & Footwear Association, which counts Adidas America (ADSGn.DE) as a member, flagged a risk of congestion at ports if hundreds of companies rush to bring in goods now.
"The tariff war has delayed back-to-school shipping by a month. But it’s not like school districts can delay school by a month," Lamar said.
