Japan's exports fell in May for the first time in eight months as big automakers such as Toyota absorbed the costs of sweeping tariffs imposed by the U.S., and the failure of the Asian nation to reach a trade deal this week will likely pile pressure on its fragile economy.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said after the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Tuesday his country had not reached a comprehensive tariff agreement with the U.S. as some disagreements persisted between the two nations.
Japan and the U.S. "explored the possibility of a deal until the last minute," he added.
Tokyo is scrambling to find ways to get Washington to exempt Japan's automakers from 25% automobile industry-specific tariffs, which are dealing a blow to the country's manufacturing sector. Japan also faces a 24% 'reciprocal' tariff rate starting in July 9 unless it can negotiate a deal with Washington.
Japan's automobile sector accounted for about 28% of the total 21 trillion yen ($145 billion) worth of goods the Asian country exported to the U.S. last year.
Its total exports in May dropped 1.7% year-on-year by value to 8.1 trillion yen, government data showed, smaller than a median market forecast for a 3.8% decrease and following a 2% rise in April.
Exports to the U.S. slumped 11.1% last month from a year earlier, dragged down by a 24.7% drop in automobiles and a 19% fall in auto components, while a stronger yen also helped reduce the value of shipments. Exports to China were down 8.8%.
"The value of automobile exports to the U.S. fell, but their volume did not drop that much," Daiwa Institute of Research economist Koki Akimoto said. "This indicates Japanese automakers are effectively shouldering the tariff costs and not charging customers."
In terms of volume, U.S.-bound automobile exports dipped just 3.9%.
So far major Japanese automakers have refrained from price increases in the U.S. to mitigate the tariff costs, except for Subaru (7270.T) and Mitsubishi Motors (7211.T).
"They are buying time right now to see the course of Japan-U.S. trade negotiations," Akimoto said. The absence of price hikes could affect their profits, but their fiscal base is generally solid, he added.
The impending tariffs had driven companies in Japan and other major Asian exporters to ramp up shipments earlier this year, inflating levels of U.S.-bound exports during that period.
The data showed imports dropped 7.7% in May from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 6.7% decrease.
As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 637.6 billion yen last month, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 892.9 billion yen.
DRAG ON GDP
The hit from U.S. tariffs could add pressure on Japan's lacklustre economy. Subdued private consumption already caused the world's fourth-largest economy to shrink in January-March, the first contraction in a year.
The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Tuesday and decided to decelerate the pace of its balance sheet drawdown next year, signalling its preference to move cautiously in removing remnants of its massive, decade-long stimulus.
According to an estimate by the Japan Research Institute, if all the threatened tariff measures against Japan were to take effect, U.S.-bound exports will fall by 20%-30%.
Some economists say those duties could shave around 1 percentage point of the nation's gross domestic product.
($1 = 145.3200 yen)
