Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) lowered its full-year profit and sales forecasts again on Wednesday, in an early blow to its new CEO as the Danish drugmaker battles to claw back lost ground in a fiercely competitive obesity drug market.
Novo is going through a tumultuous period marked by a share price plunge and slowing sales growth, which have prompted a change of CEO and a board shake-up. It's also in a bidding war with U.S. rival Pfizer (PFE.N) for biotech Metsera.
CEO Mike Doustdar, who took the helm in August and is driving a turnaround plan with mass layoffs, said the lower guidance was due to a weaker growth outlook for the firm's blockbuster GLP-1 treatments for weight management and diabetes.
"We will intensify our commercial efforts to strengthen competitiveness, to meet evolving market dynamics and increasingly consumer-like behaviour," Doustdar said.
THE RISE AND FALL OF NOVO NORDISK
Fuelled by rapid sales growth of Wegovy, Novo became Europe's most valuable firm last year, but sales growth has slowed sharply.
The company's market value peaked in June 2024, but has since fallen by around 70%, close to its value around Wegovy's launch in 2021. The stock dropped steeply at the open on Wednesday, but recovered to trade almost 1% higher.
Novo now expects full-year operating profit - measured in local currencies - to grow between 4% and 7% in 2025, compared with its earlier forecast of between 4% and 10%.
Doustdar, presenting his first quarterly results as CEO, is facing intense scrutiny from investors amid strong competition from U.S. rival Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and compounded copycat drugs custom-made from the same ingredients as branded drugs.
The company warned on Wednesday that "unsafe and unlawful mass compounding has continued" in the third quarter.
Novo did not provide a new update on how many people in the U.S. it believes are taking compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs including Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound. In August, Novo estimated around 1 million people were taking compounded GLP-1s.
Mikael Bak, head of the Danish Shareholders' Association, which he says has 17,000 members - a majority of them invested in Novo - said it was not surprised by Novo's guidance downgrade, but that it was "nevertheless a disappointment".
"We support the transformation process now underway and view this as a moment for patience, focus, and disciplined execution," he added.
SALES EXPANSION SLOWS AFTER 'HYPER-GROWTH'
Novo expects sales growth in local currencies of between 8% and 11% this year, compared with its previous 8%-14% range.
Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen said on an earnings call that Novo saw a slowdown in growth in the third quarter after a "hyper-growth" period, and expects a continued deceleration in the fourth quarter.
Sales in the third quarter rose 11% in local currencies - excluding exchange rate fluctuations - roughly in line with the 11.4% growth expected by analysts in a company-compiled poll. That was the slowest since early 2022.
In Danish crowns, sales in the quarter were up 5%, hitting 75 billion Danish crowns ($11.7 billion), compared with the 76.2 billion forecast by analysts.
Third-quarter sales of Wegovy rose 18% year-on-year to 20.4 billion crowns, versus analysts' forecast of 20.9 billion.
Operating profit fell 30% to 23.7 billion crowns, below the expected 24.6 billion crowns.
Doustdar declined to comment on the battle for Metsera, beyond saying he was confident that the transaction would close.
($1 = 6.4029 Danish crowns)
