Europe has many reasons, and enough funds, to keep supporting Ukraine. It could even make up for the lack of U.S. financing if President-elect Donald Trump withdraws all aid to the embattled country. Helping Kyiv resist Russia’s invasion won’t cost much in absolute terms to the European Union and the UK, just 0.2% in extra combined GDP per year. That’s a small price to pay. The alternative would exact a much higher toll on the Old Continent.
Whether or not Trump manages to end the Ukraine conflict “in 24 hours” through a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, as he boasted during his campaign, Washington’s support for Kyiv will waver, especially with a Republican-dominated Congress. This will raise serious political and military problems for Europe. But not financial ones.
As of August 2024, European nations, including the UK, had allocated 118 billion euros in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, while the United States had spent the equivalent of 85 billion euros, according to the tracker published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. That amounts to barely more than 0.1% of GDP a year for the U.S., and double that, or 0.2% of GDP, for the EU and UK combined.
If Europeans had to foot the entire bill for a retreating U.S., continued support for Ukraine, at the current pace of roughly 7 billion euros a month, would amount to less than 0.4% of their combined annual GDP.
Some major powers could even pay more. The UK, Italy and France have spent less than Europe’s average on support for Kyiv, in spite of their governments’ grand proclamations. Poland is already spending twice the average level while Denmark has dedicated nearly 1% of its yearly output to Ukraine’s aid, as have Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, who have reasons to fear Putin’s hegemonic ambitions.
The cost of pulling out, or reducing support for Kyiv, on the other hand, would be much higher. Ukraine cannot fight the Russian invasion without Western support and would fall back within its neighbour’s sphere of influence if Putin were allowed to have his way.
European nations would have to ramp up their defence spending to guard against Putin’s territorial ambitions. European members of the NATO defence alliance now spend an average 2% of their GDP on their military. They would have to increase that by at least an extra percentage point to go back to the level prevailing before 1990 and the end of communism.
If Ukraine falls, Europe will also have to deal with an influx of refugees. Between 9 and 19 million Ukrainians may seek to emigrate, according to studies by migration experts. Taking the middle estimate, and the average cost per refugee calculated by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – more than 6,000 euros a year – the economic impact would amount to about 84 billion euros, or 0.4% of GDP, with countries like Germany or Poland stuck with the biggest bills.
The loss of Europe’s trade with Ukraine if it fell into the Russian orbit would also be costly. Germany, for one, could lose up to 7 billion euros’ worth of exports and write down some 2 billion euros’ worth of assets, according to its statistical institute.
Then there would be the hard-to-estimate costs of higher global unrest, with other would-be aggressors spurred on by an apparent Russian victory. That might include the further disruption of global trade, higher oil prices, increased geopolitical instability in other regions of the world and, potentially, a new hit to global economic growth.
That financial reality does not however solve Europe’s political and industrial problems when it comes to Ukraine. With countries like Hungary and Slovakia pushing for dialogue with Putin and advocating the end of Western sanctions against Russia, the EU could be divided on whether to stand in for the United States if Trump wanted to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept a Russian-inspired truce.
Europeans will also struggle to make up for U.S. military aid – which has accounted for two-thirds of Washington’s support to Kyiv since 2022. France, Germany or the UK cannot provide equivalent replacements for all the hardware that Ukraine needs to fight the Russian army, and European governments remain divided on the type of weapons Kyiv should be allowed to use on the battlefield.
Finding itself isolated against Putin may speed up Europe’s efforts to adopt a joint strategy and build up a common defence industry. But that’s a problem that money alone cannot solve.
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