A Greek airport stock market sale could offer a smooth takeoff for the barren IPO market. Athens International Airport (AIA), 55%-controlled by the Greek state, said on Monday that it had begun preparations to sell a 30% stake through an initial public offering in February. By listing the operator of its biggest airport, Greece is trying to signal to investors that the country is back to full health almost 15 years after its soaring debt triggered an international bailout and shook the euro zone. The decision comes just months after rating agencies Fitch and S&P upgraded Greece’s creditworthiness to investment grade from junk status.
A boom in tourism meant that in 2023 traffic at Athens Airport was up 10% on pre-pandemic levels. That’s loftier than the 4.5% contraction European airports are collectively expected to record, according to Airports Council International. Yet it also means the group’s revenue acceleration is probably over. If AIA’s revenue was to expand at 3% per year from 477 million euros in 2022, in line with expected annual passenger traffic growth in Europe over the next few years, and it was to maintain the 69% adjusted EBITDA margin, its EBITDA could reach 350 million euros next year. Valuing AIA on a multiple of just below 9 times EBITDA, the average for global peers such as the Zurich airport as well as Mexican operators, the Greek company could fetch just above 3 billion euros including debt, Breakingviews calculations show. With most of the post-pandemic boom accounted for, investors should brace for cruise speed rather than a steep climb. (By Lisa Jucca)
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