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A builder works a roof on an estate in Aylesbury, Britain, Feb. 7, 2017. Eddie Keogh
A builder works a roof on an estate in Aylesbury, Britain, Feb. 7, 2017. Eddie Keogh
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UK homebuilders’ optimism calls for reality check

January 10th, 2024 | 14:35 PM COMMENTARY Breakingviews 2

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By Reuters

British homebuilders are anticipating a rebound in 2024. One of the country’s largest players, $6 billion Persimmon (PSN.L), said on Wednesday that it would open 30 property outlets after beating its annual sales target in 2023 and witnessing a 5% gain in private home average selling prices last year. Shares rose 4% on the back of the trading announcement.

While banks like Barclays and Santander have announced some mortgage rate cuts, affordability will remain an issue as the UK economy continues to struggle. Mortgage payments for British first-time buyers have jumped from less than 30% of after-tax income between 2014 and 2019 to over 40%, Barclays analysts reckon. Even if British average mortgage rates were to fall to 4% from more than 5% currently, that ratio would remain above 35%, keeping a strain on homebuyers’ finances.

Expectations of interest rate cuts have already sent Persimmon’s stock 50% higher from an October trough. But even with the improved outlook, its revenue is expected to be down some 30% in 2023 from 2022 and remain subdued for at least three more years, LSEG data show. With the economy still wobbly, betting on a much stronger rally looks like a stretch. (By Yawen Chen)

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