A race for an open seat on Wisconsin's top court will be an early test of the Trump administration's popularity in a political swing state, with more than $17 million spent by groups tied to Elon Musk helping shatter election spending records.
The outcome of the April 1 election, the most expensive judicial campaign in U.S. history, will determine whether the seven-member state Supreme Court has a conservative or liberal majority.
The court is likely to render crucial decisions on abortion rights, labor rights and congressional redistricting – and may determine voting rules for the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, when Wisconsin is again poised to be a critical battleground. President Donald Trump carried the state by less than a percentage point in November.
The contest between liberal Susan Crawford, a county judge, and conservative Brad Schimel, a county judge and former Republican state attorney general, is technically non-partisan, but that has not stopped Democrats and Republicans from going all in. Both state parties have lined up behind their favored candidates, and Trump endorsed Schimel on Friday.
More than $81 million had been spent with a week to go, according to New York University's Brennan Center for Justice, far outstripping the $55 million spent in the state's last Supreme Court campaign in 2023, when the court's ideological balance was also at stake. About $46 million has come from Schimel's campaign or groups backing him, compared with $35.5 million for Crawford.
"Outside groups are spending on this now the way they might spend on a gubernatorial election," said Douglas Keith, senior counsel at Brennan's Judiciary Program.
Two super PACs affiliated with Musk have spent $17.5 million to support Schimel, according to Brennan. Musk, the world's richest man and an adviser to Trump, also donated $2 million last week to the state Republican party, which transferred $1.2 million to Schimel's campaign on the same day, state filings showed.
The money underscores Musk's willingness to wield his political influence even in down-ballot races, leveraging his immense wealth, his social media site X and his close ties to Trump, after the Tesla CEO spent more than $250 million to help elect the president.
Musk's America PAC, or political action committee, offered $100 to voters who signed a petition opposing activist judges, echoing a tactic he used last year when the super PAC gave $1 million to randomly selected voters who signed petitions supporting conservative causes.
During a live chat with Schimel on X on Saturday, Musk said he is concerned that a liberal majority might redraw Wisconsin's congressional map, which could swing the balance of power in the entire House of Representatives. Under the existing Republican-drawn congressional map, Republicans hold six of the state's eight U.S. House seats.
"And then we won't be able to get through the changes that the American people want," he said.
ABORTION, VOTING RIGHTS ON TAP
In an interview, Crawford said she believed Musk and Trump were trying to secure a court that would not stand in the way of their agenda. Schimel is a long-time Trump supporter.
"I think he wants judges he can control," Crawford said of Trump. "And he has found one in Brad Schimel."
Schimel said he appreciated the support from outside groups but had no control over their involvement.
"I've made no promises to any of them," he said. "This is the only promise I've made to any voter in Wisconsin, or to anyone who supports my campaign: I will follow the law."
He criticized Crawford for meeting by video with a liberal group that characterized the election as a way to flip congressional seats.
"Courts should be deciding the law objectively," he said.
Crawford has said she did not discuss redistricting on the call and only learned afterward that the group was focused on that subject.
Democrats have also accused Musk of a conflict of interest, after Tesla sued Wisconsin in January over a law barring manufacturers from opening dealerships, a case that could eventually reach the state Supreme Court.
"This is a national referendum on whether Elon Musk and Trump can buy elections at all levels," said Ben Wikler, the state Democratic chair.
The state Republican chair, Brian Schimming, said Democrats were being hypocritical for calling out Musk's spending given that liberal billionaires such as George Soros have backed Crawford.
The court could face several major issues in the coming months.
It is currently weighing whether to reinstate an 1849 statewide abortion ban, with another case pending on whether the state constitution protects abortion rights. The court could also take up a 2011 Republican-backed law that stripped away collective bargaining rights for most public sector unions.
The justices also often have the final say over election litigation. In 2020, the court voted 4-3 to reject Trump's bid to reverse his statewide election defeat to Democrat Joe Biden.
