Analysts are evaluating the financial impact of the wildfires that have charred hillsides, homes, and streets in Los Angeles County, with initial estimates suggesting total insured losses could reach as high as $20 billion.
Attention is now turning to the potential impact on the insurance industry's first-quarter catastrophe losses, as well as the broader effects on insurance prices in the region.
Here is a snapshot of the estimates for insured economic losses:
RBC Capital Markets:
The brokerage expects losses in the range of $10 billion to $20 billion. RBC analysts added that losses are expected to be among the most costly in history, particularly given the number of high-value homes impacted.
Wells Fargo:
The brokerage estimated insured losses of roughly $20 billion from the disaster and said total economic losses could be well above $60 billion.
MGA Kettle:
Wildfire-focused insurtech MGA Kettle has more than doubled its insured loss estimate to a range between $11 billion and $17.5 billion, up from $5 billion estimated earlier, The Insurer reported.
J.P.Morgan:
The brokerage doubled its insured loss estimate to $20 billion late on Thursday and warned it could potentially rise even higher if the fires are not controlled.
Juniper Re:
The reinsurance broker estimated residential property insured losses of around $9 billion using replacement cost instead of sales price and factoring in contents and loss of use coverage points.
It can reach the $15 billion to $20 billion range once commercial and auto claims are included, it added.
Raymond James:
The brokerage sees total estimated insured losses ranging between $11 billion and $17.5 billion and it potentially becoming the costliest wildfire in U.S. history.
Morningstar DBRS Research:
The ratings agency sees insured losses in excess of $8 billion depending on the final number of properties affected by the wildfires, based on preliminary estimates.
It sees the ongoing wildfires having a negative but manageable impact on major property insurers active in the California market.
S&P Global:
The ratings agency said early estimates suggest insured losses from the wildfire are significant and can potentially match the about $16 billion from the 2017 Tubbs Fires in Northern California.
Moody's:
The ratings agency expects insured losses to run well into the billions of dollars due to the high value of homes and businesses in the affected areas, and to cause large losses for P&C insurers with significant homeowners and commercial property market share in Los Angeles.
Aon:
The insurance broker said insured losses will "almost certainly" reach into the billions of dollars, and possibly higher, pending further damage assessments.
It added that the disaster will most likely end up as one of the costliest wildfires in California history.
Source: Client notes, media reports
Note: Estimates are preliminary and can change materially later.
