Even before it was signed, the Gaza ceasefire forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a tight spot - between a new U.S. president promising peace and far-right allies who want war to resume. That tension is only likely to increase.
The stakes for Netanyahu are high -- keeping his coalition government on the one hand and on the other, satisfying U.S. President Donald Trump who wants to use the ceasefire momentum to expand Israel's diplomatic ties in the Middle East.
One of Netanyahu's nationalist allies has already quit over the Gaza ceasefire, and another is threatening to follow unless war on Hamas is resumed at an even greater force than that which devastated much of Gaza for 15 months.
The clock is ticking. The first stage of the ceasefire is meant to last six weeks. By day 16 -- Feb. 4 -- Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas are due to start negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, whose stated aim is to end the war.
Former police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party quit the government on Sunday and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that he will stay in government only if war resumes after the first phase until the total defeat of Hamas, whose Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the war.
"We must go back in a completely different style. We need to conquer Gaza, instate a military rule there, even if temporarily, to start encouraging (Palestinian) emigration, to start taking territory from our enemies and to win," Smotrich said in an interview with Channel 14 on Sunday.
Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, however, said on Wednesday he was focused on ensuring the deal moves from the first to second phase, which is expected to include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
"Netanyahu is pressed between the far-right and Donald Trump," said political analyst Amotz Asa-El, with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. "Netanyahu's coalition now is fragile and the likelihood that it will fall apart sometime in the course of 2025 is high."
Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Witkoff told Fox News on Wednesday that he will be on the ground overseeing the ceasefire, a signal that he will keep up the pressure he applied during the deal's negotiations.
According to six U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and other Mideast officials who spoke to Reuters in the run-up to the ceasefire announcement on Jan. 15, Witkoff played a crucial role in getting the deal over the line.
SAUDI
Netanyahu's balancing act between his far-right allies and the White House stretches beyond Gaza.
After the ceasefire was struck, Trump said he would build on the deal's momentum to expand the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements reached during his first term that saw Israel normalize ties with Gulf Arab countries.
Trump said on Monday he sees Saudi Arabia joining.
That strategic goal is shared by Netanyahu. But that cannot happen if war in Gaza is raging, said Eyal Hulata, who headed Israel's National Security Council from 2021-2023.
"If the Gaza war does not end, it is impossible to make progress with Saudi Arabia. And President Trump really wants to complete the expansion of normalization. It is high on his foreign policy agenda."
Complicating matters further for Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia has made Palestinian statehood a condition for normalising ties with Israel. Smotrich, and others in Netanyahu's government, are fiercely opposed to that.
Still, progress with Riyadh may be seen by the year's end, an Israeli diplomatic official told Reuters, though talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire will likely prove difficult.
Around 70% of Israelis support the Gaza deal, according to a poll published on Thursday by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, and 61% support incorporating it into a broader accord that includes Saudi Arabia.
The second phase, if it happens, would include the release of remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. A third phase is expected to start Gaza's reconstruction, overseen by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is post-war Gaza's governance. Israel won't accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.
Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday, that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel "in doing what it has to do."
On Saturday, after his government signed off on the ceasefire, Netanyahu said Israel had U.S. backing to resume fighting if the second stage talks prove futile, leaving himself some political leeway with Smotrich, for now.
"If we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force," Netanyahu said in a video statement.
