Washington's decision not to coordinate with European nations about its negotiations with Iran on Saturday will reduce its leverage and make U.S. and Israeli military action against Tehran ultimately more likely, analysts and diplomats said.
The United States did not tell European countries about the nuclear talks in Oman before President Donald Trump announced them on Tuesday, even though they hold a key card on the possible reimposition of U.N. sanctions on Tehran, three European diplomats said.
"The United States is going to need a coordinated diplomatic strategy with its European allies going into these negotiations with Iran," said Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
That coordination is "crucial to making sure that there is maximum pressure and any diplomatic option has a chance of success," Misztal said.
Trump, who restored a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran in February, on Wednesday repeated threats to use military force against Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program and said Israel would be "the leader of that."
The West suspects Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which it denies. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into concessions, but detailed discussions on strategy have yet to take place with the Americans, the diplomats said.
Because the United States quit a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations Security Council.
That makes Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, the only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback, so it is crucial that Washington align with these allies, analysts said. Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, has already lobbied the E3 to initiate it.
According to the three diplomats, the E3 told Iran they would trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of June. Iran responded that doing so would mean harsh consequences and a review of its nuclear doctrine, the diplomats said.
"The E3 do not trust the United States because it is taking initiatives without them being consulted," said a senior European diplomat.
Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018 from the nuclear deal with Iran also signed by Russia and China. The accord curbed Iran's nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. Russia opposes restoring sanctions.
Under the nuclear accord, participants can initiate the 30-day snapback process if they are unable to resolve accusations of Iranian violations through a dispute-resolution mechanism.
But that opportunity expires on October 18 when the accord ends.
Since the U.S. exited the deal in 2018, Iran has far surpassed its uranium enrichment limits, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran is producing stocks of fissile purity well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy programme and close to weapons grade.
GOING IT ALONE
The U.S. administration's approach echoes Trump's first term in office, when he also prioritised unilateral talks with Iran, and with his stance on the war in Ukraine, where Washington has begun direct talks with Moscow, sidelining Europeans.
European officials have held some meetings with U.S. counterparts but said they were not sufficiently in-depth.
Even a meeting on Iran with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers meeting a week before Trump's announcement was difficult to arrange, three E3 officials said.
The British, French and German foreign ministries did not respond directly when asked if they had been made aware of the Oman talks ahead of time.
"We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if necessary," a British foreign ministry spokesperson
said.
France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said tersely on Wednesday that the French "take note with interest" the talks.
Neither the White House National Security Council nor the State Department immediately responded to a request for comment on the snapback or coordination with Europeans.
EUROPEAN-IRAN DIRECT TALKS
Having negotiated with Iran as a trio as far back as 2003 on the nuclear issue, the European countries consider their role essential to a solution. In the 2015 deal, a key carrot for Iran was being able to trade with Europe.
The Europeans have helped the United States pressure Iran in recent months, including at the U.N. atomic watchdog and with new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile programme, detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.
During the U.S. policy vacuum after Trump won the election but before he took office, the Europeans tried to take the initiative by holding exploratory talks with Iran that began in September and have continued.
The E3 said that was necessary because time was running out before the 2015 deal expires on October 18. They have tried to sound out whether new restrictions, albeit narrower than those agreed in 2015, could be negotiated before then.
Diplomats said that in those talks, Iranian officials have often quizzed their counterparts on the new U.S. administration.
"Iran believes that talks with the E3 and other parties to the nuclear deal can help defuse tensions over its nuclear programme and can be complementary to talks with the U.S.," said an Iranian official.
