French President Emmanuel Macron has emerged weaker on the European stage after agreeing to yield to Ursula von der Leyen and sacrifice his heavyweight EU Commission nominee, Thierry Breton, experts say.
Although Macron's people say he has carved a more influential role for his replacement, Stéphane Séjourné, a close Macron loyalist, it is becoming clear von der Leyen is the biggest winner of that swap, having won her fight with Macron.
Von der Leyen named a new "college" of commissioners - the team that will lead the European Union's most powerful institution for the next five years - on Tuesday. Each of the bloc's 27 member-states has one seat at the table.
"President (von der Leyen) intends to lead ... on her own," said Jean-Dominique Giuliani, President of the Robert-Schuman Foundation, a think-tank, in a note.
"Inside her college, free spirits have no place, which explains Thierry Breton's resignation," he added. "A weakened French president did not feel he should fight the battle to impose him, and that's really a shame."
Breton, 69, a former French finance minister with extensive experience as the CEO of French blue-chip companies, had become a heavyweight of the European Commission for the past five years - and von der Leyen's main rival.
He had grabbed headlines by sparring publicly with tech billionaire Elon Musk and playing a key role in shaping the EU's Big Tech regulation, its COVID-vaccine response and efforts to boost defence industries.
The two had clashed publicly on several occasions, and Breton had helped to torpedo von der Leyen's decision to give a highly-paid EU job to a member of her party, the German CDU.
But until last week he was still expected to be reappointed, having been publicly confirmed in June by Macron, who had given von der Leyen his backing for her re-election in return for a big economic portfolio, sources close to Macron have said.
FRENCH ELECTION CHANGED BALANCE OF POWER
It was only after von der Leyen came back to Brussels from her summer break on Aug. 19 that she told Macron she would not give France the big portfolio he wanted unless he gave up on Breton, diplomatic sources told Reuters.
By then, she had gained the upper hand, with her confirmation by EU lawmakers already in the bag.
Macron, on the other hand, was mired in intractable talks with French political bigwigs to try to square the circle of who could become prime minister with the hung parliament his failed gamble of calling an early legislative election had given him.
"She struck with Machiavellian timing," an EU diplomat told Reuters.
Her team declined to comment on Breton.
Giving in on Breton marks a loss of influence for Macron, who had been instrumental in choosing von der Leyen five years ago and had shaped the bloc's agenda.
People close to Macron say the only thing that mattered for him was the portfolio France held in the new commission and that, although he still had total trust in Breton, the identity of the commissioner came second.
Séjourné, the outgoing foreign minister, will keep Breton's main job, heading the powerful industry brief, with access to new "financial tools" currently scattered among other portfolios, the people close to him said.
He will also be given an executive vice-president title, overseeing a cluster of four commissioners.
But people with knowledge of the EU's machinery say what matters in Brussels is the number of directorates-general - the equivalent of ministerial departments - you have under your direct control.
Breton had three and Séjourné just one, even if French officials say he will also "supervise" the commissioners in his cluster.
"That's fanciful," one of the people in Brussels said. "That title doesn't matter. Everything in Brussels is a question of power dynamics. You must have direct control of the bureaucracy and a very strong personality to make things move."
Séjourné was one of the strategists behind Macron's rise, but he has yet to make a mark in public roles such as foreign minister.
At 39, he does not have the experience of running a big company or big bureaucracies that Breton had, and cannot claim to command the same respect from top global executives, which will be tested by Musk and others, his critics say.
In terms of policy, some specialists say the EU will miss Breton's ability to get things done.
"Just what Europe and notably European defence didn't need," François Heisbourg, a geopolitical analyst, said on X.
"Though I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool fan of Thierry Breton, the fact is that he had brought much energy and know-how to the building-up of EU arms procurement policy," Heisbourg said.
