China's refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (7.98 million barrels per day) and is expected to fall 1.3% to 394 million tons in 2024, CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute said on Friday.
As a result, crude oil imports are expected to fall to 544 million tons this year, according to a presentation by the research arm of China's largest oil producer, although the world's top importer still accounts for a quarter of global imports.
CNPC's forecast underscores expectations that China's crude oil imports are on track to peak next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline for the world's top crude buyer, ending the country's decades-long run as the dominant driver of expanding oil consumption.
By 2035, China's overall refined products consumption is expected to fall by 25-40% to 240 million to 290 million tons in 2035 from the 2023 peak, CNPC said.
Gasoline consumption is forecast to fall to 80 million to 100 million tons in 2035, down 35-50% from 2023, as electric vehicles are expected to make up half of China's car fleet by then, it added.
Similarly, the growth in trucks powered by alternative fuels such as electricity, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen, is expected to reduce diesel demand to 100 million to 120 million tons in 2035, a 35-50% decline from 2023, CNPC said.
Jet fuel or kerosene consumption will rise by 70% to 60.8 million tons in 2035 from 2023 on aviation demand, added.
In line with falling fuel demand, China's refining capacity is expected to peak in 2028 while its capacity for ethylene, a basic plastic raw material, could exceed 90 million tons per year, it added.
Demand for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), feedstocks for petrochemicals, hit a record 169 million tons this year and is expected to drive China's oil demand going forward, it added.
Oil-based chemical feedstock demand expected to grow by 55% to 210 million tons in 2035 from 2023, CNPC said.
