Global wheat importers are bracing for tighter supplies as attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure disrupt shipments, heightening food security risks for top buyers such as Egypt and Indonesia, while driving up prices.
Benchmark Chicago futures have climbed more than 17% since the start of July, fuelled largely by a shortfall in Black Sea supplies, with physical prices making strong gains in rival exporters Argentina, Australia and the United States.
Tit-for-tat attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ports and vessels in recent weeks have shuttered grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel loadings for dozens of cargoes during the peak export season.
"The cargoes were due to start arriving from mid-August, but many ships could not go in to load," said one Singapore-based trader who sells Black Sea wheat to millers in Asia.
"Buyers are thinking about replacing some of these cargoes with other origins, such as Australia, North America and Argentina."
Most major importers of wheat are vulnerable, as they rely on Black Sea wheat for a large share of second-half supply, with freshly harvested crops entering the market from July.
GROWING ASIAN FEARS OVER SHIPMENT ARRIVALS
In Asia, grain processors have booked about 2.0 million to 2.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat for arrival in the period from July to September, or about 30% to 50% of import demand, but fears are growing that several shipments might not arrive on time, said two Singapore-based traders.
They spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to media.
"By the end of August, the market will have to find solutions," said Maxence Devillers, grain analyst at Argus Media.
For now, stronger harvests across parts of the Middle East and North Africa have cushioned the immediate impact, with the Egyptian government procuring record volumes of local wheat and better rains boosting crop prospects in Morocco and Tunisia.
The world's largest wheat importer, Egypt sourced more than 82% of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026.
Traders say much of the heat is being felt by Egypt's private sector, which imports more than half its wheat needs and operates with smaller inventories.
No. 2 buyer Indonesia has contracted for about 600,000 tons to be shipped from former Soviet grain exporters in the July-September period, traders said.
Current stocks can meet immediate food-grade wheat requirements, said an official of the Indonesian Flour Millers Association.
"But we don't have abundant or excess supply. We have to look at other origins such as Bulgaria, Australia, Romania, and Argentina for cargoes that do not get shipped from Russia and Ukraine."
LOADING DELAYS, PRICEY ALTERNATIVES
Other major importers, such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam also rely heavily on wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Jordan cancelled two wheat tenders and two for barley this month after getting few offers, with traders citing high prices and shipping risks. Tunisia warned suppliers against invoking force majeure.
Last week, a vessel scheduled to load grain for Egypt was attacked approaching Russia's port of Novorossiysk, three people familiar with the matter said.
Two of the sources identified the ship as the Xin Hai Tong 66, adding that it was unladen at the time and no injuries were reported.
Few shipowners are now willing to call at Russian or Ukrainian ports, said Hesham Soliman, a trader based in the Egyptian port of Alexandria.
"The situation is getting worse by the day," he said, warning of a shortage if no resolution was found. The issue has drawn high-level attention, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying he discussed the threat to food supplies from Black Sea attacks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Switching imports to other suppliers will come at substantially higher prices.
Australian Premium White wheat is quoted at around $315 to $320 a ton, including cost and freight to Asia, well above the cheapest U.S. wheat, priced at about $305 a ton. Most Black Sea cargoes are at around $260 to $280 per ton.
Recent weeks have brought the collapse of an arrangement that had largely spared grain ships and port terminals in Russia and Ukraine from attacks, allowing both to keep up large agricultural exports, traders say.
In July Ukraine saw 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 on port facilities, its infrastructure ministry said. The corresponding figure for all of 2025 was 14.
