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Dark clouds are seen over the building of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, June 6, 2024. Wolfgang Rattay
Dark clouds are seen over the building of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, June 6, 2024. Wolfgang Rattay
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ECB governors see July rate cut as unlikely, focus now on Sept -sources

June 6th, 2024 | 16:47 PM MARKETS Rates & Bonds 2

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Russia's state debt-servicing costs will rise by 23% in 2026
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Fitch revises Poland's outlook to 'negative' on weakening public finances
Fitch maintains Romania's investment-grade rating but budget strains remain
By Reuters

European Central Bank governors see a further interest-rate cut in July as unlikely after some stronger-than-expected economic data, with the focus now on their September meeting, five sources told Reuters.

An ECB spokesperson declined to comment for this story.

The ECB went ahead with its first reduction in borrowing costs since 2019 on Thursday, citing progress in tackling inflation even as it acknowledged price growth was likely to stay above its target for another year.

Policymakers gathering in Frankfurt agreed not to provide any public guidance about their next meeting on July 18, given that the path ahead for inflation was bumpy and uncertain, the sources said.

But some governors, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they thought it was unlikely they would cut rates again next month in light of recent data, including strong wage growth and services inflation.

Those policymakers had already shifted their focus to the Sept. 12 meeting, when the ECB will update its economic projections and have a few more inflation prints to consider.

One source said a rate cut would be warranted in September if the ECB's inflation forecast for the last quarter of 2025 remained where it has been for some time, that is at 1.9%-2.0%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde has singled out that stable projection as key evidence underpinning Thursday's decision to cut rates.

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