Halving the time to settle a stock trade in Europe could harm markets if not organised properly, and coordinating the move with Britain will not solve challenges faced by smaller financial firms, the EU's securities watchdog ESMA said on Thursday.
The EU is looking at how it will copy Wall Street, which is cutting settlement time to one business day, known as T+1, in May, along with Canada and Mexico, in a step U.S. regulators say will cut risk in markets.
The EU has said matching this shift is a matter of when, rather than if, though it could take several years, and it asked ESMA to look into the practicalities.
"ESMA understands that, although T+1 is technically possible ... mandating a harmonised shift from T+2 to T+1 in the EU would have considerable operational impacts and could even negatively affect the market if not organised properly," the watchdog said in an interim report based on a public consultation.
Britain is studying a similar move.
"A significant part of the feedback received suggests that an alignment would be beneficial, including cooperation within geographical Europe, although this will not solve challenges related to cross-border settlement within the EU," ESMA said.
It makes no recommendation on timing, and industry officials say that late 2026 or early 2027 is realistically the earliest date given the fragmented nature of Europe's stock market.
ESMA said it would further study costs and benefits of moving to T+1, and lessons learned from the U.S. change before reporting back in the second half of the year.
Buy-side firms told ESMA that the cost of moving to T+1 would be so high for smaller asset managers that it would trigger consolidation.
The watchdog said it does not agree with arguments suggesting a rise in settlement fails, and that cash penalties are a "good tool" to encourage efficiency in markets.
