"This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU member state to join the euro area,” ECB chief economist Philip Lane said in a statement.
The final decision rests with EU finance ministers, who are expected to sign off on the process in early July.
Once the political process is complete, Bulgarian central bank officials will be invited to join ECB groups, including the rate-setting Governing Council, as observers, until formal accession.
Bulgaria has been trying for years to join the common currency but its accession date has been pushed back in part because it fell short on some vital criteria, particularly inflation.
This time it just met the inflation criterion as the 12-month reading was at 2.7% in April, just below the 2.8% reference value.
Inflation is seen accelerating in 2025, however, and could average 3.6% on the year, but the European Commission expects it back below 2% in 2026.
