The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle from other sources.
With the U.S. government shutting down much of its operations on Wednesday as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal, the U.S. Labor Department will suspend economic data releases, including the closely watched monthly employment report, due Friday.
Cue an unusual quiet on trading floors and in investment firms.
"Friday does have all the makings of a rather long lunch somewhere now," quipped Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London. For him, the report would normally land in the afternoon.
The data disruption will upend the usual Friday routine for many on Wall Street.
"Usually economists and strategists are dialed in at 8:30 in the morning; now you can potentially get some other work done," Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said.
"It'll be nice to have a Friday morning where your eye's not twitching waiting minutes until that jobs report hits," Miskin said.
PAYROLL DATA CONSIDERED 'THE KING OF THE NUMBERS'
Still, the timing is awkward. Investors are laser-focused on the labor market for clues to how the Federal Reserve's newly-resumed rate cutting efforts might unfold. It also comes not long after a market-shocking weak scorecard on U.S. jobs prompted President Donald Trump to fire a top Labor Department official.
"A few weeks ago we were questioning the accuracy of the data, and now all of a sudden we can't live without it," Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said.
It's not just trading desks that will miss the familiar ritual. Social media usually lights up with #NFP and #NFPguessposts, a reference to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls figure. Those posts can number 10,000 to 50,000, in the 24 hours around the release, with activity spiking on big surprises, according to Grok, an AI chatbot on X.
For Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick, a frequent guest on financial news shows breaking down the U.S. jobs report, Friday will be different.
"I'll just sleep in," he joked about his plans for Friday.
For others, like James Cordier, head trader at Alternative Options, far from affording extra sleep, the lack of data can spell sleepless nights, he said. Should the data drought last beyond mid October, Cordier, who trades commodities, might have to prematurely close trades because the risk of keeping them in place in the absence of data is too great.
Interactive Brokers' Sosnick said missing out on the payrolls update was particularly problematic.
"It is really sort of the king of the numbers, so to speak. The king, I guess, takes a vacation now."
The data disruption, something that hasn't happened since the 2013 government shutdown delayed the employment report by a couple of weeks, could even make traders more jumpy.
"Investors will fill the informational void left by the government shutdown with new trading narratives based on incomplete and misleading private-sector data releases, unfounded anecdotes, and flimsy rumors," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said
"The risk of overreaction will grow."
