Pfizer's (PFE.N), GSK's (GSK.L) and Moderna's (MRNA.O) competition for arms for their new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines is on Wall Street's watch list for when the companies report earnings later this week.
Investors and analysts said they are hoping for details on company negotiations with pharmacies for shelf space and the tactics they will use to gain share after U.S. regulators narrowed the recommendation for which older adults who should receive the shots this year.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last month the shots should be used in adults 75 and older, as well as those who are 60 to 74 and have an increased risk of severe RSV due to medical conditions. Last year - the first year the shots were on the market - the age had effectively been 60 and up.
In 2023, GSK won two-thirds of the market, mostly due to its contracts with retail pharmacies. The company has held on to its dominant market share in the U.S. so far this year, according to Iqvia data from analyst notes.
Analysts had suggested expanding the RSV vaccine to adults aged 50 to 59 at increased risk from the illness, an age group for which only GSK has FDA approval, could help cement its lead.
But the CDC held off on recommending the shots for that age group. The decision pushed GSK shares down 6% the following day.
The narrower recommendation "probably evens the playing field a little bit more for GSK and Pfizer longer term," said Guggenheim Partners analyst Evan Wang.
Regulators also said people who were vaccinated last year should not get another shot as they are expected to confer multiple years of protection.
Combined revenue for the Pfizer and GSK shots in their first year of availability topped $2.4 billion. This year analysts expect around $1.2 billion in sales each for both GSK and Pfizer and another $370 million in sales for Moderna's mResvia, which was approved in May.
GSK is scheduled to release earnings on Wednesday, a day after Pfizer.
"We have an extensive ongoing development plan for Arexvy and continue to see this exceptional vaccine as a significant long-term growth opportunity for GSK," a company spokesperson said in a statement.
RSV typically causes cold-like symptoms but is also a leading cause of pneumonia in toddlers and older adults, leading to 177,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths in the United States annually.
Pfizer has said its 2023 launch of its shot Abrysvo was a disappointment and that the company would focus on improving its contacts and commercial execution this year. The company's shot could be helped by being the only one approved for pregnant women in order to protect their babies.
"I would like to hear that (Pfizer's) identified the weaknesses in the launch and are making adjustments to how they're going to pursue that," said William Couchman, executive vice president at investment firm Birmingham Capital Management, which holds around $5 million in Pfizer shares and has been building its position in recent months.
Pfizer recently secured a two-year contract to supply close to 5 million doses of its vaccine in the UK.
Analysts expect Moderna, which is rolling out its mRNA shot for the first time, to come in third this year as it works to build up recognition of its new shot. The company hopes the fact that it is the only shot available as a pre-filled syringe will help with its uptake.
"We are currently shipping mResvia to major retailers and other points of care and are well positioned in a competitive market," Moderna said in a statement.
Moderna is set to report its earnings on Thursday.
