U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
Oil output from the world's largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook.
The forecasts show that the nearly two-decades old U.S. shale boom is drawing closer to its end, challenging U.S. President Donald Trump's vision of unleashing higher domestic oil supply.
The DOE in a statement blamed former U.S. President Joe Biden's policies for charting a "disastrous path" for American energy production and said the EIA outlook is based on policies in place as of the end of last year.
U.S. oil output set new records under Biden's presidency in both 2023 and 2024, and new drilling permits were issued faster under Biden than Trump's first term.
As for Trump's policies, his sweeping tariffs against U.S. trading partners are discouraging shale drillers, who face higher costs on steel and equipment, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. The advisor to industrialized nations slashed its global oil demand and U.S. oil output forecasts for 2025.
Even as the oil industry welcomed Trump's early moves to ease permitting requirements and expand drilling opportunities, heightened price volatility from an uncertain market outlook has forced producers to scale back investments, Global X research analyst Kenny Zhu said.
U.S. shale oil production will peak at 10 million bpd in 2027, up from about 9.69 million bpd this year, the EIA said. It will then decline to about 9.33 million bpd by 2050, the agency said.
POST-PANDEMIC DEMAND BOOM FADING
The post-pandemic recovery in U.S. oil demand will end next year, forecasts showed. Total product supplied, the EIA's measure of demand, will edge up from 20.51 million bpd this year to 20.52 million bpd next year, EIA data showed.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, U.S. oil consumption averaged 20.54 million bpd. The all-time record high was in 2005 at 20.80 million bpd.
The EIA last week lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, citing potentially weaker economic activity due to an intensifying U.S. trade war with China.
The agency also sharply cut its oil price forecasts and reduced its outlook for U.S. oil production growth for 2025 and 2026 as a result of the demand uncertainty.
It now expects Brent crude, which serves as the international benchmark, to average $67.87 a barrel this year, down from its earlier forecast of $74.22.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil will average $63.88 a barrel in 2025, EIA said last week, nearly $7 below its prior forecast.
Brent futures , were trading slightly below $65 a barrel on Tuesday, down about 13% so far this year. WTI futures were trading around $61.25, down about 14% so far this year.
