China’s electrical generation surged to a seasonal record in September as the economy recovered from disruptions caused by the pandemic and lockdowns.
Total generation increased by almost 63 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) (9%) compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
There were large increases in consumption by the services sector (17%), manufacturing (9%), primary industries (9%) and residential users (7%) compared with September 2022.
Most of the increase was supplied by hydro-electric generation (+40 billion kWh) as the massive new Baihetan Dam on the Jinsha River compensated for poor rainfall.
The rest came from thermal generators (+13 billion kWh), solar (+4 billion kWh), wind (+2 billion kWh) and nuclear generators (+2 billion kWh).
Chartbook: China electrical generation
Baihetan, the world’s second-largest hydro generating station after China's Three Gorges, became fully operational at the very end of 2022 with a total capacity of 16 gigawatts (GW).
But even with Baihetan, hydro output in September 2023 was not significantly higher than in the same month in 2021 or 2020.
Prolonged drought across southern China since mid-2022 has depressed hydro generation, requiring more thermal output to fill the gap, almost all from coal.
To ensure coal-fired generators have sufficient fuel and avert a repeat of the shortages that occurred in 2021, the central government has mandated maximum domestic coal production and a big increase in imports.
Domestic mine production hit a seasonal record 393 million metric tons in September up from 387 million in the same month a year earlier and 334 million in 2021.
At the same time, coal imports climbed to a seasonal record of 42 million tons in September from 33 million in 2022 and 2021.
RENEWABLE ROLLOUT
China is investing heavily in renewable generation to curb greenhouse gas emissions as well as reduce dependence on imported oil and gas.
So far, however, renewable generation is not growing fast enough to meet growth in consumption, let alone reduce the need for coal.
The country has added 226 GW of extra generating capacity in 2023, led by an enormous increase in solar (129 GW) with much smaller increases in thermal (39 GW), wind (33 GW) and hydro (8 GW).
But thermal plants have generated far more hours on average (3,344 hours) than hydro (2,367 hours), wind turbines (1,665) and solar farms (1,017 hours), according to data from the National Energy Administration.
As a result, coal remains a critical component of the country’s “all-of-the-above” approach to energy security – ensuring power remains plentiful and reliable.
Related columns:
- China and India struggle to curb fossil fuels (October 19, 2023)
- China’s hydro generation jumped unexpectedly in August (September 22, 2023)
- China’s rainfall is in the wrong place for hydropower (August 22, 2023)
- Drought-depleted hydropower drives China to turn to coal (June 16, 2023)
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
