Shares of German automakers weighed on Europe's auto index on Thursday on concerns they could be the worst hit should Beijing retaliate if the EU decides to impose tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles.
Alternatively, punitive tariffs on imports from China could accelerate Chinese EV makers' plans to build in Europe, analysts said, raising competition for domestic carmakers.
Aided by subsidies, cheap access to raw materials, and technological know-how developed via early investment in electric cars, Chinese EV makers have far lower production costs than their Western counterparts.
Still, EV makers including BYD (002594.SZ), XPeng (9868.HK), Geely (GEELY.UL) and others selling in Europe currently price their vehicles higher than in China, in part because of added costs including shipping and local configuration.
France, whose president Emmanuel Macron has argued the EU should stop being naive and demand a level playing field with countries like China, had been pushing the European Commission behind the scenes to launch the probe.
"We need anti-subsidy instruments ... this instrument should be used now," a French finance ministry source said.
INTENSE COMPETITION
The chief executives of Renault (RENA.PA) and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), which produce mass-market models in Europe but have a small presence in China, have warned that Europe must catch up in the face of intense competition from Chinese brands arriving on their turf.
German carmakers, by contrast, have been more muted, with far more too lose as they rely on China for around a third of passenger car sales.
Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE) declined to comment, while Mercedes-Benz (MBGn.DE) said it supported "liberal trade regulation based on WTO rules" and that "protectionist measures are counterproductive."
"Renault and Stellantis are net winners from this ... they would benefit from lower mass-market competition ... and face no risk from any Chinese retaliation," Daniel Roeska of Bernstein said in a research note.
"Volkswagen could gain from lower mass-market competition, but is the most exposed ... premium OEMs ...face the risk of retaliation and might see their China-export plans sent awry," he added.
By 1210 GMT, the STOXX Europe 600 Auto (.SXAP) index was down 1.46%, while the broader market was steady.
Stocks of carmakers Renault and Stellantis, which are less exposed to the Chinese market than their German counterparts, saw smaller dips of 1.33% and 0.81% respectively.
