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A Southwest commercial airliner takes off from Las Vegas International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., February 8, 2024.  Mike Blake
A Southwest commercial airliner takes off from Las Vegas International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., February 8, 2024. Mike Blake
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Southwest flags lower unit revenue forecast as demand stays uneven

June 26th, 2024 | 10:46 AM BUSINESS Aerospace & Defense 2

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By Shivansh Tiwary

Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) on Wednesday lowered its second-quarter forecast for revenue per available seat miles (RASM), a proxy for pricing power, as the domestic carrier struggles to predict a change in demand environment.

Shares of the Dallas-based airline were down about 4% in morning trade.

Some carriers have struggled to accurately predict demand trends especially on domestic routes, exposing them to the risk of overcapacity on some major routes, hurting their pricing power despite strong overall demand.

Southwest's revised forecast contrasts with those of other major carriers which remain optimistic about summer travel driven by strong international demand.

Southwest, which operates an all-Boeing (BA.N) fleet, has been reeling from the planemaker's ongoing safety crisis that has delayed deliveries of its new jets on order, forcing the airline to moderate its growth plans.

Earlier this year, Southwest was forced to remove the smaller MAX 7 aircraft from its 2024 fleet plans due to certification issues.

The smallest MAX jet was expected to provide Southwest flexibility to adjust capacity to suit demand as passenger traffic trends stay dynamic.

On Wednesday, the company said changing travel patterns meant it was unable to sell the amount of seats it planned.

Last month, American Airlines (AAL.O) also lowered its second-quarter unit revenue forecast as it tried to grow its market share in smaller markets, while walking away from corporate travel customers.

Southwest has been targeted by activist investor Elliott, which called for leadership and board changes at the company and criticized it for its "disappointing" financial performance. Elliott also disclosed an 11% stake in the company.

"Activists will eat up the revenue problem," Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note referring to Elliott and the company's forecast revision.

The carrier now expects current quarter RASM to be down between 4% to 4.5%, compared with its previous estimate of a fall of 1.5% to 3.5%.

Despite lowered expectations, the company continues to expect a "record operating revenue" in its second quarter.

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