The Democratic Party's ideological divide faces its biggest test of the 2026 primary season on Tuesday, with progressive Abdul El-Sayed looking to win Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate nomination over center-left U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.
Michigan is one of five states holding primaries along with Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state. Democrats need to net four seats to retake the Senate, making Michigan — a state Donald Trump won in 2024 — central to those hopes.
Here are five things we're watching:
DEMOCRATS FIGHT THEIR CIVIL WAR IN MICHIGAN
But the biggest prize — and greatest risk — is Michigan, where El-Sayed, a former unsuccessful candidate for governor, is running against Stevens, a moderate congresswoman who flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018.
Stevens is backed by the Democratic establishment, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and has been the beneficiary of tens of millions of dollars in outside spending by a pro-Israel super PAC.
Progressives, including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have rallied around El-Sayed, whose victory would test the narrative that progressives can't win in general election battleground districts or states.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. And while Democrats are largely on offense in battleground states, they're defending two seats in states Trump won: Michigan and Georgia. A loss in either state would make a Democratic Senate majority significantly more challenging.
Recent primary polls show El-Sayed leading Stevens by double digits, but surveys show Stevens is a stronger general election opponent.
Former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee who is running unopposed, will enter the general election with $4.5 million in his war chest, according to his most recent campaign finance disclosure. He lost the 2024 race by less than a percentage point to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
DIVIDED MODERATES COULD GET CONQUERED
While Michigan's Senate race is the state's marquee matchup, the moderate-progressive divide will also play out in a Lansing-area battleground district represented by Republican Tom Barrett.
The three-way Democratic primary features two moderates — former U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink — and progressive climate activist William Lawrence.
Establishment Democrats would rather see Maasdam or Brink face Barrett in the general election, but there's concern they could split the center-left primary vote and give Lawrence a path to victory.
Trump won Barrett's district by 1.3 percentage points in 2024, when Barrett won the Democratic-held open seat by nearly 4 percentage points. Democrats need to net three seats in November to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
CORI BUSH'S COMEBACK BID
Former members of Congress have had a mixed record this year on comeback attempts, with only four so far advancing in primaries. Several others either suspended their campaigns or lost their primaries.
Next up is Cori Bush, a progressive Missouri Democrat seeking to unseat U.S. Representative Wesley Bell in a rematch of 2024.
A pro-Israel super PAC spent $8 million to help unseat Bush, a vocal critic of Israel, last cycle. That same super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent more than $3 million this cycle to keep Bush out of Congress.
The winner is heavily favored to win in November, as the St. Louis-area district is safely Democratic.
CAN THANEDAR WIN A TWO-MAN RACE?
U.S. Representative Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian American, was elected to his Detroit-area district in 2022 after prevailing in a crowded open-seat primary. He defeated two Black women in a 2024 primary but has a single opponent this time: Donavan McKinney, a Black state representative backed by several progressive lawmakers, including Sanders and U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.
Black Michiganders comprise about 45% of the district's population. Democratic congressional leaders — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is Black — have endorsed Thanedar's reelection. McKinney is backed by many members of the Congressional Black Caucus, including former CBC Chair Steven Horsford of Nevada.
McKinney has raised more than $1.3 million, but Thanedar has millions of dollars from his personal wealth to spend. An opinion poll last month sponsored by the progressive group Justice Democrats found Thanedar narrowly leading, though respondents favored McKinney by a wider margin after being shown biographies of both candidates.
The winner is expected to win in November.
KANSAS CONSIDERS SUPREME COURT REFORM
Voters in Kansas will consider a referendum that critics warn could lead to the overturning of abortion rights in the state.
In 2022, nearly 60% of voters rejected a constitutional amendment to restrict access to abortion. The Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the state's constitution protected Kansans' decision of whether to continue a pregnancy. The court reaffirmed that right in 2024.
The new referendum would change how state Supreme Court justices are chosen, if successful. Justices are currently selected by a process in which the governor chooses among three finalists selected by a nine-member commission.
The referendum would allow voters to elect justices to six-year terms, with three seats up in 2028, two seats up in 2030 and the final two seats up in 2032. Vacancies would be filled by special elections.
Kris Kobach, now the state's Republican attorney general, said in 2022 that electing justices by popular vote was the next best way to overturn the court's abortion decision after the referendum failed. Kobach said Supreme Court elections would allow the state to "slowly and quietly" put anti-abortion justices on the bench to eventually restrict abortion access.
