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Pound Sterling notes and change are seen inside a cash resgister in a coffee shop in Manchester, Britain, Septem,ber 21, 2018. Phil Noble
Pound Sterling notes and change are seen inside a cash resgister in a coffee shop in Manchester, Britain, Septem,ber 21, 2018. Phil Noble
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Sterling little changed near over three-week high 

August 10th, 2026 | 09:54 AM WORLD United Kingdom 2

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UK economy hands Burnham surprise boost before first budget
Sterling extends rally on firm rate-hike bets, subdued dollar
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By Samuel Indyk

The British pound was little changed against both ‌the dollar and euro on Monday as markets awaited growth data later in the week and updates on talks in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Sterling was last up less ​than 0.1% against the dollar at $1.3502, just below a three-and-a-half week high of $1.35085 ​hit on Friday.

Against the euro, the pound was flat at 85.62 ⁠pence.

Monthly growth figures, due for release on Thursday, are expected to show that the ​economy remained resilient in June, with the month's retail sales unexpectedly strong due to spending linked ​to the World Cup and hot weather.

EYES ON OIL PRICES

Sterling traders were also keeping an eye on talks in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and any potential impact on ​energy prices.

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, due to continued uncertainty about the reopening ​of the strait. Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes but that ‌the ⁠U.S. must meet other conditions.

Expectations for Bank of England policy settings have tended to fluctuate with energy price movements, with higher oil prices and the feed through to inflation expected to lead to tighter monetary policy.

But so far, the BoE has decided to wait ​to see how the ​situation in the ⁠Middle East plays out, and refrained from tightening policy, unlike the European Central Bank, which raised borrowing costs in June.

Investors are now ​pricing in one rate hike from the BoE by the ​end of ⁠the year, with a second hike fully priced in by September next year.

ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole believes that markets are pricing in too hawkish a rate path for the BoE, ⁠which ​could weigh on sterling if it was reversed.

"Our view ​on the pound is still bearish leaning on the back of our call for no rate hikes and ​markets still pricing in some tightening," said Pesole.

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