A critical minerals deal Donald Trump has negotiated with Ukraine could ease tensions between Kyiv and the U.S. president and at the same time win back support from his Republicans in Congress for a new round of aid to the war-torn country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to be in Washington on Friday to sign a minerals agreement with Trump, a deal Trump is portraying as a way to recoup American money that has been spent to support Ukraine.
Trump said on Tuesday that Zelenskiy wanted to come to Washington on Friday to sign a "very big deal." The deal is central to Ukrainian attempts to win strong support from Trump as he seeks a quick end to Russia's warthrough U.S.-Russian talks that have so far excluded Kyiv.
Analysts, and congressional Republicans, said a successful agreement increased the chances that members of the party - who control both the House of Representatives and Senate - would be willing to approve more aid for Ukraine.
Congress has approved $175 billion in assistance since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, but the last funding bill passed in April, when Democrats still controlled the Senate and Democrat Joe Biden was in the White House.
Even then, congressional Republicans slow walked the bill under pressure from Trump, who has been skeptical of further military aid to Ukraine, leading to delays in the delivery of weapons which put Ukrainian troops on the back foot in the battlefield.
Since Trump was elected on Nov. 5, enthusiasm for further spending has been thin.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said last week there was "no appetite" for another Ukraine aid bill, after Trump called Zelenskiy a dictator and warned he must move quickly to secure peace with Russia or risk losing his country.
Democrats in the U.S. Congress have remained solidly in favor of backing Zelenskiy's government.
Republican Representative Michael McCaul, a strong supporter of Ukraine, said he agreed that a minerals deal would make it easier for Republicans to vote for assistance, while U.S. companies made money and Ukraine profited from its resources.
"Yes I do, especially if it (the deal) comes from Trump," he told Reuters.
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McCaul described the deal as a "joint economic alliance," where the U.S. would help develop Ukraine's critical minerals.
"And then obviously, our industry would make money," he said. "They would make money, and then we help to pay for the war."
Representative Joe Wilson said the deal would appeal to fellow Republicans who want to cut spending, especially foreign aid spending, by providing a financial benefit for the U.S.
"It's really not an issue with Ukraine," he said. "It is that they are legitimately concerned about the overspending, and then that's reflected that they're skeptical about foreign efforts."
McCaul, Wilson and other Republican lawmakers noted that details of a security agreement for Ukraine remained a sticking point, but analysts said it made sense for Ukraine to sign after three years of war, steep losses and to get Trump invested in Kyiv's success.
"They see this as a way to get the Trump buy-in," said Scott Anderson, a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.
Republican senator Jim Risch, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, did not say a minerals deal would garner more Republican support, but saw it as instrumental in bringing the war to an end.
"I think there will be a settlement, but as in all settlements, each party needs to come away and be able to tell their constituents they won," Risch said.
