The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate (INREPO=ECI) unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday, as it awaits data to judge if higher oil prices are stoking inflationary pressures across Asia's third-largest economy.
COMMENTS:
DIPTI DESHPANDE, SENIOR DIRECTOR AND PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, CRISIL, MUMBAI:
"The MPC's decision to keep both rates and stance unchanged is in line with our expectations. The mild nudging of growth forecast up and inflation forecast down underlines its comfort in the resilience of the economy, also bolstered by active policy support and government intervention.
"We expect retail inflation to edge up over the coming months, driven by the waning impact of GST rate cuts and the pass-through of input cost pressures by producers, and higher freight costs."
ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI:
"The unchanged policy rate is a welcome signal of stability amid the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, but it is not enough to reignite the mass-market housing cycle."
ANSHUMAN MAGAZINE, CHAIRMAN & CEO – INDIA, SE ASIA, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, CBRE, DELHI:
"For real estate, rate stability is a positive signal heading into the festive season, which is typically the strongest period for housing demand in India. We expect this continuity to support healthy residential sales momentum through the second half of 2026, particularly in the mid and premium segments where affordability is closely tied to interest rate sentiment."
ADITI NAYAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICRA LTD, NEW DELHI:
"A status quo on the policy rate and stance by the MPC in August was a foregone conclusion, given the limited evidence of generalisation of inflationary pressures so far. Amidst considerable volatility engendered by geopolitics and the monsoon, the committee's growth and inflation forecasts were tweaked marginally, and we believe that these are appropriate for an average crude oil price of $80-85/barrel and a moderate rainfall deficit. Importantly, the tone of the policy statement was relatively neutral, and does not suggest that rate tightening is imminent."
SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM:
"Looking ahead, the possibility of a turn in the interest rate cycle (rate hike) in the third quarter of FY27 remains low. Given the commentary from RBI today, it seems the bar for a hike is set high and would require widespread second-round inflationary pressures beyond temporary oil and food inflation spikes. The policy today also confirms that the central bank remains focused on domestic inflation and growth dynamics and rising expectations of rate hikes by developed-market central banks have a limited bearing."
MADHAVI ARORA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES:
"The policy tone is cautious albeit constructive, balancing uncertainties from the Middle East conflict, tighter global financial conditions, and El Niño risks against resilient domestic growth and robust FCNR (Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank account) inflows."
APOORVA JAVADEKAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MUTHOOT FINCORP, MUMBAI:
"The RBI is rightly adopting a wait-and-watch approach, given uncertainty on oil prices. For now, abating war risks, recovering monsoon, ample food buffer, and inflation within the band all allow the RBI to hold. A rate hike at this juncture would have appeared premature and costly given that rural growth impulses are slowing and could further get impacted given the reduced fiscal capacity."
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE:
"The RBI signalled patience, but not complacency. By remaining on hold, the MPC retained flexibility while monitoring whether current inflation pressures prove temporary or evolve into a more generalised inflation cycle."
UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI:
"The RBI's decision of status quo has been in line with expectations. The tone has been well balanced, highlighting the risks and, hence, the policy decisions ahead being data-dependent. We continue to see scope for 50 bps of rate hike in the second half of FY27."
SHISHIR BAIJAL, INTERNATIONAL PARTNER, CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, KNIGHT FRANK INDIA:
"For the real estate sector, this policy continuity is expected to sustain housing demand and investment activity, particularly across residential and commercial segments, while supporting the sector's long-term growth trajectory."
VIKRAM CHHABRA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, 360 ONE ASSET, MUMBAI:
"If the geopolitical situation stabilises and the monsoon remains close to normal, we expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged for an extended period. However, if crude oil prices remain elevated and a weak monsoon disrupts agricultural output, driving up food inflation, the RBI may be compelled to raise interest rates by the end of FY27."
