India's central bank is likely to keep rates steady on Wednesday, with a small number of investors betting on the probability of a change in stance to neutral, opening the door to rate cuts as economic growth slows and global rates ease.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is seen maintaining the repo rate at 6.5% for a 10th straight meeting with more than 80% of the 76 economists in a Reuters poll forecasting no change in rates. It has held the repo rate steady since February 2023.
A dozen economists predicted a 25 basis-point cut, while one anticipated a drop to 6.15%. Nomura economists said they see a 55% probability of a rate cut in October while acknowledging it would be a close call.
Market participants believe the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50-bp rate cut last month may prompt the RBI to start cutting rates sooner rather than later, with most now pricing in a December rate cut versus early 2025 previously.
"Given the undershooting in the initial Q1 GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast, and the likely sizeable undershooting in the Q2 CPI inflation print as well, we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review," said Chief Economist at ICRA Aditi Nayar.
High frequency indicators such as the manufacturing PMI slowed to an eight-month low in September, while services PMI eased to a 10-month trough, latest data showed.
Annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) remained below the central bank's target of 4% for a second consecutive month, clocking in at 3.65% in August, higher than the revised 3.60% in July and economists' forecast of 3.5%.
Despite the recent dip, a Reuters poll has estimated that inflation will pick up again, to average 4.5% this fiscal year and 4.3% next year.
Bank of America expects RBI will have room to cut rates in the coming months due to slowing growth and falling inflation and project a 100-basis-point cut in the repo rate by December 2025, with the first cut starting in December 2024.
RATE PANEL REJIG
"This policy is likely to be interesting. Not only as the markets will hear from the new external members, but also as the debate in India has veered around a likely slowdown story and limited risks for inflation," economists at Yes Bank said in a note.
The RBI reshuffles its panel every four years which could affect voting patterns. Two of six panel members who left the panel voted to cut rates in recent meetings.
