Portugal's parliament will vote later on Tuesday on a motion of confidence in the minority centre-right government, which looks set to be rejected, triggering the country's third early general election in just over three years.
Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, in his job three weeks short of a year, presented the motion on Thursday after the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of a consultancy firm he founded which is now run by his sons.
Montenegro has denied wrongdoing or any ethical shortcomings by the firm, which has contracts with private companies.
If the motion is rejected, as promised by the two main opposition parties - the centre-left Socialists and far-right Chega - the government will take on a caretaker role, and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will have to decide whether to hold a new election after a round of consultations.
He has said a new ballot could be held in mid-May.
STABILITY SEEN ELUSIVE, VOTERS WEARY
Analysts see an early ballot as all but inevitable but see no strong mandate for any political force emerging from it.
Meanwhile voters are already showing election fatigue and disillusionment with politicians.
"This seems like a joke, no one understands why there's a new election so soon. Politicians blame each other, but all of them are being irresponsible," said Joao Brito, 70-year-old retired civil servant in downtown Lisbon.
Political scientist Adelino Maltez of Lisbon University pointed to opinion polls showing very little change in voter preferences from the March 2024 election, in which Montenegro's Democratic Alliance (AD) won by a mere 1,500 votes, securing 80 seats in the 230-seat house.
In surveys, the AD remains marginally ahead of the Socialists, who now have 78 seats.
"The problem is that the new election will not be conclusive... The AD and the Socialists are tied. It is a situation that will be difficult for them to navigate," Maltez said, seeing a centrist pact between Montenegro's Social Democrats and the Socialists as the only solution.
The two main rivals only had such an accord in parliament once, in 1983-1985.
"If they don't do it, it will be more of the same instability," Maltez said, seeing the rivals' programmes as largely compatible.
