The long-term survival prospects of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's minority government have shrunk as he fights to keep the Socialist Party from backing a no-confidence vote on Thursday.
Although Bayrou looks likely to ride out the no-confidence motion put forward by 58 far-left France Unbowed (LFI), Green and communist lawmakers, a loss of Socialist support would be a big blow, especially after he offered on Tuesday to renegotiate a disputed 2023 pension reform law to win their backing.
If Bayrou were to lose Socialist support, he would find himself in a similar position to predecessor Michel Barnier: reliant on the grace of the far-right National Rally (RN), which could pull its backing at will.
Barnier's three months in office were cut short after the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, chafed at his belt-tightening 2025 budget bill.
"Le Pen and her lieutenants have blown hot and cold on their intentions in (Thursday's) vote. The likelihood is they will stand aside and Bayrou will survive - for now," Eurasia Group said in a note.
"Without Socialist support, Bayrou now finds himself just as vulnerable to the whims and threats of the far right."
The no-confidence vote will be debated on Thursday at 1400 GMT, the president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, told RTL radio on Wednesday.
The Socialists, who voted to oust Barnier in December, have made concessions on the pension law a condition for supporting Bayrou. Courting the Socialists was seen as a way for Bayrou to free himself from dependence on the far right.
In parliament on Tuesday, Bayrou opened the door to re-negotiating the pension plan, proposing to entrust trade unions and employers' groups with a three-month mission to find a new deal that is financially balanced. If they cannot agree on a new deal, or are unable to strike an accord that is measured, the current deal would remain in place, Bayrou said.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure said this was not enough.
"We will back a no-confidence vote, unless we get a clear response to our demands," he told TF1 TV late on Tuesday.
He said the Socialists wanted a guarantee that if the re-negotiations failed, the pension law would be re-examined by parliament.
Bayrou was unwilling to go that far, but made a fresh concession to win over the Socialists on Wednesday. Even if trade unions and employers' groups are unable to agree on a new deal, Bayrou said, he would be open to sending some of their recommendations as a bill to parliament.
It remained to be seen if that gesture would be enough to keep the Socialists onside.
The pension reform, which became law in the spring of 2023, gradually raises the minimum age for drawing a full pension to 64 from 62.
