French far-right leader Marine Le Pen faces one of the defining days of her political career on Monday, when a court rules whether she is guilty of embezzlement in a trial that could see her barred from the 2027 presidential race.
The verdict threatens to upend French politics, with Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally (RN), a front-runner in polls ahead of the 2027 vote.
Her party has called the trial a witch hunt and her removal from the race would intensify debate about how judges police politics.
A tough sentence "would cause considerable disruption since the main opposition leader would be prevented from running by the judges", said Arnaud Benedetti, a political analyst who has written a book on the RN's rise.
Le Pen, the RN and two dozen party figures are accused of diverting over 3 million euros ($3.3 million) of European Parliament funds to pay France-based staff. The defendants say the money was used legitimately and the allegations define too narrowly what a parliamentary assistant does.
Acquittal would boost a far-right leader who has tacked towards the mainstream and transformed the RN into the biggest single party in France's parliament.
However, a guilty verdict with an automatic five-year ban would hammer Le Pen, 56, a three-time presidential contender who has said 2027 will be her final run for top office. She would retain her parliamentary seat until the end of her mandate.
Judges can adopt, modify or ignore the prosecutors' request.
POLITICAL FATE IN COURT'S HANDS
Le Pen accuses prosecutors of seeking her "political death", alleging a plot to keep the RN from power that echoes claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump about his legal woes.
In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, published on Saturday, Le Pen said she wasn't nervous, and expected mercy from the judges.
"With provisional execution, the judges have the power of life or death over our movement," she said. "But I don't think they'll go that far."
Some of her rivals, including Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, as well as some left-wing politicians, worry about judges deciding who can run for office.
Prosecutors and a judge involved in the trial have received online death threats, Reuters reported, part of a growing international backlash against judges seeking to rein in political wrongdoing.
Senior RN figures do not expect Le Pen to be barred. Her protege, 29-year-old party president Jordan Bardella, will take her place if she is, they say.
Far-right expert and political scientist Jean-Yves Camus said a five-year ban could anger Le Pen's supporters.
"RN voters are quite prone to thinking they are victims of the 'elite'," he said. "An immediate ineligibility verdict could reinforce this sentiment of being ostracised."
