Romanians vote in the first round of a presidential election on Sunday, with worries about the cost of living likely to earn radical right leader George Simion, who opposes military aid to Ukraine, a shot at victory.
European Union and NATO state Romania holds a run-off ballot on Dec. 8, to replace outgoing two-time president and staunch Ukraine ally Klaus Iohannis, with a parliamentary election sandwiched in between, on Dec. 1.
Analysts say Ciolacu would most likely win that second round match-up, appealing to moderates and touting his experience running Romania during a war next door, but do not rule out a Simion victory.
The incoming president will face a slowing European economy, a pending fiscal correction to lower the EU's highest deficit, and pressure to uphold NATO spending goals during Donald Trump's second term as U.S. president.
"Romania's next five years are not about us but ... about the international context," Ciolacu told television channel Antena 3. "It is unclear what turn the war in Ukraine will take. It is regional now, but we must be prepared for bad scenarios."
OUTSIDER PITCH
Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, Romania has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta and provided military aid, including the donation of a Patriot air defence battery.
Simion has cast the election as a choice between an entrenched political class beholden to foreign interests and himself, an outsider who will defend Romania's economy and sovereignty.
A supporter of Trump, he opposes military aid for Ukraine and has accused the coalition government of treating refugees better than domestic flood victims. Some political opponents accuse him of being a Russian agent, a charge he denies.
"I did not stick my hand in the jar to steal your money," Simion told supporters this month. "I am one of you, not one of them. I have always been among people, talking about closed factories, unemployment ... the poverty that is making young people leave the country."
FAMILY VALUES
Two centre-right candidates are also in the running: senate speaker Nicolae Ciuca, leader of the Liberal Party (PNL) that is currently in a strained ruling coalition with Ciolacu's PSD, and Elena Lasconi, the head of opposition Save Romania Union (USR).
"The outcome is still very difficult to predict due to the high concentration of candidates and the splitting of the centre-right vote," said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.
Most candidates, he said, have campaigned on largely conservative messages such as protecting family values.
"Mainstream party candidates have a very catch-all message, on the one hand the nation, the army, religion and so on. On the other hand, we see a commitment to Europe, although it is seen more as a revenue source than an inspiration for values."
Romania's president, who is limited to two five-year terms, has a semi-executive role which includes heading the armed forces and chairing the supreme defence council that decides on military aid.
The president represents the country at EU and NATO summits and appoints the prime minister, chief judges, prosecutors and secret service heads.
Iohannis swept to power a decade ago on a promise to bolster the fight against endemic corruption.
