Austrians elect a new parliament on Sunday with the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) aiming to secure its first general election win in a neck-and-neck race with the ruling conservatives that has been dominated by economic worries and immigration.
Having led opinion polls for months, the FPO's edge over the Austrian People's Party (OVP) has shrunk to almost nothing as Chancellor Karl Nehammer casts himself as a statesman and depicts his rival, FPO leader Herbert Kickl, as a toxic menace.
Whoever wins will fall well short of an absolute majority, polls show, but claim the right to lead a coalition government. Projections are due minutes after polls close at 5 p.m. (1500 GMT), with results being finessed over the ensuing hours.
"What's at stake is whether the FPO will appoint the chancellor or not," Kathrin Stainer-Haemmerle, political science professor at the Carinthia University of Applied Sciences.
"Should that happen, then I have to say the role of Austria in the European Union would be significantly different. Kickl has often said that (Hungarian Prime Minister) Viktor Orban is a role model for him and he will stand by him."
The eurosceptic, Russia-friendly FPO, which is critical of Islam and pledges tougher rules on asylum seekers, won a national vote for the first time in June when it beat the OVP by less than a percentage point in European elections.
An FPO victory would make Austria the latest European Union country to register surging far-right support after gains in countries including the Netherlands, France and Germany.
President Alexander Van der Bellen, who oversees the formation of governments, has voiced reservations about the FPO because of its criticism of the EU and its failure to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The party also opposes EU sanctions on Moscow, citing Austria's neutrality.
He has hinted he might thwart Kickl, noting the constitution does not require him to ask the first-placed party to form a government, even though that has long been the convention.
The OVP, which like the FPO backs tougher immigration rules and tax cuts, is the only party open to forming a coalition with the far-right party. Polls suggest they could muster a majority together, but Nehammer says his party will not join a government with Kickl in it.
"Ideally I would vanish into thin air for you but I won't do you that favour, Mr Nehammer," Kickl, 55, said this week when asked if he would stand aside to let his party be junior partner under the OVP.
'FORTRESS AUSTRIA'
Provocative and polarising, Kickl has relished the role of opposition firebrand but has at times appeared uncomfortable trying to moderate his tone to widen his leadership appeal.
The FPO wants to stop granting asylum altogether and build a "fortress Austria" preventing migrants from entering, even though that would be widely viewed as illegal or impractical.
In his closing campaign speech, Kickl said sanctions against Moscow were hurting Austria even more than Russia, adding: "And if you look at Germany, VW for example, the threat of mass unemployment and everything that then spills over into Austria."
Nehammer has sought to depict Kickl as a conspiracy theorist shouting from the sidelines while he is running Austria.
The 51-year-old Nehammer has since 2021 led a coalition with the left-wing Greens, but the alliance has proved fractious with the economy struggling and inflation worrying voters.
Some voters think Nehammer's crisis-management efforts against severe flooding that struck Austria this month probably saw him claw back ground in the election race.
Susanne Pinter, 55, a Greens supporter in Vienna said the floods had helped Nehammer look statesman-like, as she fretted about the prospect of a far-right victory.
"If the FPO wins ... it'll have bad consequences for women, people of migrant origin and climate change," she said.
