Roberto Vannacci's new far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, is fast becoming a political headache for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Just four months after deserting Meloni's coalition ally, the League party, the former general says he has attracted almost 100,000 paying members to his new movement, which is polling at around 4% and rising.
That may sound modest, but in a tight election due next year it could be enough to decide whether Meloni wins a second term, leaving her with a difficult conundrum - should she embrace him, and risk scaring away her more moderate supporters, or shun him, and hope that his momentum will fade.
Vannacci's anti-EU, pro-Russia party will be officially inaugurated this weekend, presenting itself as an uncompromising, nationalist party, while accusing Meloni and her allies of going soft.
"We represent that right which is not faded, not wavering, not fearful," Vannacci told a group of foreign reporters earlier this year after he abandoned the League, which is headed by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.
"Many positions taken over the past three years by this government ... have revealed a fearful right," he said, arguing that Meloni had been weak with Brussels, had failed to crack down on crime and had reneged on promises to repatriate migrants.
FORMER PARATROOPER WINS FANS ON THE RIGHT
Vannacci, 57, a former paratrooper with short-cropped hair and an intense, unsmiling gaze, shot to prominence three years ago publishing a book that he said promoted traditional Italian values while disparaging LGBTQ people, migrants and feminists.
Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said the book brought the army into disrepute and Vannacci, who had served as Italy's defence attache in Russia between 2020 and 2022, was suspended from active service.
Salvini, drawn by his uncompromising right-wing appeal, welcomed Vannacci into the League, giving him the springboard he needed to win election to the European Parliament in 2024.
This has provided Vannacci with a platform to build a strong following rooted in his own persona - blunt, disciplined and confrontational - before he struck out on his own in February, outflanking both Salvini and Meloni on the right.
"Salvini hoped to take advantage of Vannacci's popularity, but it has backfired horribly on him," said Sofia Ventura, a political science professor at Bologna University.
"Salvini is now going to have to take up more radical positions to prevent being outmanoeuvred. This is a problem for Meloni, who might also feel compelled to follow the same path."
An SWG poll published on Friday put Futuro Nazionale at 4.6%, snapping at the heels of the League on 5.8% - feeding into Italy's recurring appetite for political newcomers.
The same poll showed a loose alliance of centre-left parties marginally ahead of Meloni's bloc.
VANNACCI VOWS TO MAINTAIN POLITICAL 'PURITY'
None of the ruling coalition parties have suggested forging an alliance with Vannacci, who in the European Parliament has aligned himself with groups including Germany's far-right AfD, that is shunned by mainstream parties.
A tie-up would be particularly uncomfortable for Forza Italia, led by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and bankrolled by the Berlusconi family, which has adopted a more socially progressive outlook since the death of its patriarch, Silvio Berlusconi.
"I don't talk to Vannacci," Tajani told Reuters, while not ruling out contact ahead of an election expected within 18 months.
Vannacci insists his party belongs inside the right-wing camp but has made clear any accord would be on his terms, saying he would not compromise the movement's "purity".
That stance unnerves many in Meloni's camp.
Since taking office, she has recast Brothers of Italy from a hard-right protest party into a more mainstream conservative governing force with credibility in Brussels and Washington, backing Ukraine and presenting herself as a reliable Atlanticist.
VANNACCI POACHES LAWMAKERS
Vannacci's rise threatens to pull her coalition in the opposite direction. His party has already begun recruiting from government ranks, attracting eight lawmakers from coalition parties, and combines hardline anti-EU rhetoric with scepticism toward Western support for Ukraine.
"In my opinion, unconditional support in terms of weapons and money for Ukraine is not good for Europe," he said.
For now, Futuro Nazionale remains tightly bound to its founder's appeal. But if it aims to evolve beyond a protest vehicle, it will need to build a broader organisation, candidates and a credible political class.
Vannacci's trajectory echoes that of Meloni herself, who spent a decade building Brothers of Italy in opposition, free from the compromises of government, before taking power in 2022.
"I've seen this story a million times. Someone stands up and says, 'You betrayed us; now here I come, pure and hardline, uncompromising'," said League lawmaker Alberto Bagnai.
"But then you get to the point where this political force has to decide whether to remain pure and hardline - doing the (centre-left) Democratic Party a favour, or seek a compromise with the centre-right."
