China's Communist Party appeared to kick off its annual closed-door retreat in the seaside resort of Beidaihe, an informal gathering that perennially sparks rumours of power jostling among senior cadres and comes this year ahead of a major party conclave in October on party governance.
Beijing does not publicly confirm the gathering, but in a sign that it had begun, Chinese President Xi Jinping's chief of staff and close aide Cai Qi on Monday met with scholars in Beidaihe in northern Hebei province, an appearance analysts say has in past years coincided with the summer retreat.
"Historically, the retreat has provided an opportunity for serving and retired leaders to hold informal discussions and negotiate over policy and personnel," said Neil Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
But, with power increasingly concentrated within the party and in Xi's hands, "the scope for genuine bargaining has narrowed," Thomas said.
China has not officially documented the top leaders' meetings in the coastal town, about 1.5 hours east of Beijing by high-speed rail, since the formal practice of collective summer work sessions was abolished in 2003.
State media has nonetheless said that summer visits to Beidaihe by serving and retired senior officials continued, allowing informal contact, comparing the resort town to the U.S. presidential retreat Camp David and Russia's Sochi.
Beidaihe's state-run guesthouses, heightened security every summer, and proximity to Beijing have long made it a focal point for speculation over elite politics.
Road closures, restrictions on private aircraft and watercraft — including drones, paragliders, jet skis and speedboats — and a routine, roughly two-week gap in the usually near-daily official coverage of top leaders only add to that speculation.
Xi last appeared in public during a Politburo group session on Friday on modernising China's military.
"The retreat is often China's 'silly season,'" said Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. "The radio silence from leadership fuels rumours of political infighting or elite coups."
There is little public evidence that the speculation reflects active divisions or a challenge to Xi's authority, analysts say.
DISCIPLINE, PERSONNEL, ECONOMY
More concrete issues are likely to dominate the party's agenda in the weeks ahead: preparations for October's meeting, the enforcement of internal discipline, personnel management and economic pressures at home.
"Leadership will be taking stock of a mixed year: Beijing has successfully steadied the relationship with Washington, largely on its own terms, but faces mounting economic headwinds at home," Osman said.
Xi has also signalled his intention to impose still stricter discipline on leadership ranks already thinned by a years-long anti-graft campaign, in an attempt to keep the broad authority vested in its cadres within tightly constrained parameters.
Beidaihe may also offer officials an opportunity to gauge and align themselves with Xi's priorities ahead of next year's 21st Party Congress, when a wider leadership reshuffle is expected, Thomas said.
But questions over the gathering's continuing importance remain.
"For decades, this was the single most consequential informal event on the political calendar ... the one retreat where the elders exerted influence," said Jean Christopher Mittelstaedt at the University of Zurich.
"However, Xi has been very successful in pushing back the elders' influence, so the retreat has lost importance in the last decade."
