Thailand's economic growth likely slowed in the second quarter as weak household consumption offset gains from strong exports, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was estimated to have expanded 2.5% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, the August 12-15 survey of 21 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 1.6% and 2.9%.
The economy grew 3.1% in the first three months of 2025, and the government is scheduled to release the second-quarter data on August 18.
On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded 0.3%, a smaller poll sample showed, slowing from 0.7% in the first quarter.
ANZ economist Krystal Tan said high-frequency data showed a recovery in private investment but it was probably offset by a deterioration in private consumption, while strong import growth kept contribution from net exports to overall growth modest.
"We expect growth to weaken materially in the coming quarters as the impact of higher U.S. tariffs filters through. The tourism sector is struggling and is unlikely to provide offsetting support," she said.
Exports, a key growth driver, recorded double-digit gains for all months except April in the first half of the year, as companies rushed shipments before higher U.S. tariffs came into effect.
The United States was Thailand's biggest export market last year, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, with a value of $55 billion.
Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank, said domestic demand was weak, with high household debt and slowing foreign tourist arrivals weighing on consumption.
Private consumption contracted in April and June on a month-on-month basis and ticked up slightly in May, Bank of Thailand (BOT) data showed.
To prop up domestic demand, the central bank cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 1.50% on Wednesday. It was the fourth reduction in 10 months.
BOT Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul said growth would moderate in the second half and stressed there was little risk of a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
"We expect GDP growth to slow to 1.7% in the second half of 2025. Headwinds are piling up. Exports will slow as frontloading fades," said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.
A separate Reuters poll in July forecast growth of 1.3% and 0.9% in Q3 and Q4, respectively.
