A court in Thailand will decide on Wednesday the fate of the progressive opposition party, Move Forward, in a case that has compounded fears of a re-igniting of a power struggle between influential conservatives and popularly elected parties.
The Constitutional Court will rule on the poll body's request to dissolve the 2023 election winner Move Forward after the same court in January found its campaign to amend a law protecting the monarchy from criticism risked undermining Thailand's system of governance with the king as head of state.
Move Forward's anti-establishment agenda won huge support among voters but it clashed with Thailand's powerful nexus of old money families, conservatives and the military, to which reforming the lese-majeste law is a step too far in a country where royalists regard the monarchy as sacrosanct.
Move Forward's influential rivals coalesced to block the party from forming a government last year but it remains the biggest force in parliament with an agenda that includes military reform and undoing big business monopolies.
The party denies wrongdoing and was ordered to drop its campaign on the royal insults law. It is hopeful it will escape dissolution, arguing the election commission's complaint did not follow proper procedures.
The verdict comes as cracks appear in an uneasy truce between the royalist establishment and another longtime rival, the populist ruling party, Pheu Thai, with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin facing possible dismissal by the same court next week over a cabinet appointment. He denies wrongdoing.
'REACHING A CRESCENDO'
"Once again, political risk and uncertainty is reaching a crescendo," said Nattabhorn Buamahakul, Managing Partner at government affairs consultancy, Vero Advocacy.
"These highly consequential decisions, the fate of parliament's biggest party and the PM's seat could lead to lawmakers switching parties, more bargaining and - as we have previously seen - street demonstrations," she added.
Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, has been locked in a two-decade cycle of coups, judicial interventions and dissolutions that have toppled elected governments and major parties, at times leading to violent street demonstrations.
Protests ensued in 2020 after Move Forward's predecessor, Future Forward, was disbanded over a campaign funding violation, with anti-government protests leading to some taboo-breaking calls to reform the monarchy, which landed several activists in jail.
The palace typically does not comment on the lese-majeste law.
Move Forward figurehead Pita Limjaroenrat, who is among 11 party executives who face bans from politics for a decade, last month told Reuters it was time to "stop this vicious cycle".
"I want to prove to the establishment, and also to the world, that dissolving parties is futile," he added.
He could be right, with expectations that if disbanded, the party's surviving 143 legislators will keep their seats and reorganise under a new party that could become even more popular.
"They are they only option for progressive voters," said Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute,
"Orange, no matter the name, will always vote orange," he said, referring to the party's signature colour.
