South Korea's exports likely rose in September on strong technology demand, with headline growth seen hitting a 13-month high on calendar effects, a Reuters poll found on Monday.
Economists, however, are still concerned about prolonged trade talks with the U.S. as South Korea has yet to sign a written agreement on a preliminary deal reached with President Donald Trump in July.
Exports are forecast to have risen 7.2% this month from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 19 economists, the fastest pace since August 2024, having risen last month by a revised 1.2%, their weakest in three months.
In September and October, trade data from Asia's fourth-largest economy is often distorted by timing differences in the Chuseok thanksgiving holidays. There were 24 working days in September this year, versus 20 last year.
"Export growth may accelerate on the back of record semiconductor shipments, alongside front-loaded shipments before the Chuseok holiday," Standard Chartered economists said in a note.
"However, autos and machinery face ongoing tariff headwinds from the U.S.," they said.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 13.5%, led by a 27% jump in semiconductors, but they were down 10.6% on daily average. Shipments to the U.S. and China gained 6.1% and 1.6%, respectively, while those to the European Union and Southeast Asian countries grew more sharply.
"Exports to both the U.S. and China are being pressured by U.S. tariffs," Lee Jeong-hoon, an economist at Eugene Investment Securities, said, referring to South Korea's two biggest trading partners.
Imports were projected to have risen 5.6% in September, also the fastest in 13 months, after dropping 4.1% in August.
The median estimate for the monthly trade balance stood at a surplus of $7.81 billion, wider than the previous month's $6.51 billion.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for September on Wednesday, October 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
