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  • August 22nd, 2026

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U.S. dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound, Turkish Lira, Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. Dado Ruvic/Illustration
U.S. dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound, Turkish Lira, Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Dollar treads water as Fed hike bets pared on benign US inflation

August 13th, 2026 | 04:12 AM WORLD Asia Pacific 3

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By Kevin Buckland

The dollar's advance stalled on Thursday after an overall benign U.S. inflation reading overnight ‌spurred traders to pare back bets for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The greenback was little changed against the yen in Asia's afternoon, but remained on course to gain about 1% this week as markets bought back the currency pair following recent joint U.S.-Japan intervention that saw it plummet to ​a three-month low.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against the yen and five other major peers, was ​flat at 99.976 on Thursday, but on course for a 0.4% weekly rise.

U.S. consumer prices increased 0.1% ⁠in July, in line with economists' expectations, leading money markets to reduce the odds of a September rate hike to 40%, ​down from 54% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch.

Michael Wan, a currency strategist at MUFG, said the primary dilemma for the ​Fed now lies in weighing inflation risks against a softening labour market, particularly after the weaker-than-expected July payrolls report released last Friday.

"We think that the FOMC is likely to maintain a restrictive holding pattern in September rather than a pivot towards a hike," Wan said in a note.

The dollar changed hands ​at 159.35 yen , close to the 160 level that some market participants see as a line in the sand following the rare ​joint intervention at the end of July. The action helped pull the exchange rate down from near a four-decade peak close to 164 to ‌155.20 over ⁠the course of three days.

Shusuke Yamada, head of Japan FX/rates research at Bank of America, said investors can only judge the authorities' commitment to defending the yen through dollar-yen price action and the policy response that follows.

"A break above 160 would likely be interpreted as a sign of limited policy resolve, while successful intervention that pushes USD/JPY below 155 would have strengthened perceptions of strong commitment ​at least until recently," Yamada said.

"Confidence ​in Japan's commitment to defending ⁠the yen improved after coordinated intervention with the U.S. on July 31. However, as USD/JPY has rebounded without any intervention over the past week, that credibility appears to have eroded."

The euro was little ​changed at $1.1525. Sterling edged down 0.04% to $1.3491 ahead of a slew of UK data due later ​in the day, ⁠including GDP.

The Australian dollar eased 0.2% to $0.7048, but was still close to Wednesday's 10-week high of $0.7091. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent told a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event in Sydney that the risks on inflation were very much to the upside and if those risks ⁠materialised, rates ​would have to rise again.

The New Zealand dollar slid 0.4% to $0.5833 after a ​surprisingly low reading on inflation expectations stirred doubts about the need for aggressive rate hikes. The currency has retreated gradually after hitting the highest levels since early June earlier ​this month.

Bitcoin was slightly higher at around $63,883.

  • Topic
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  • FOREX/ (UPDATE 1)
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